| triglavski7. 07. 2009 14:16:19 |
m''re 1
7.7.2009 As always, a nice and informative report. But no offense, the theory about thunderstorms due to a lot of snow doesn't hold; it can affect a locally increased probability but not much more. Anyway, other conditions must be met first - especially an unstable air mass. With a dry and stable air mass, thunderstorms rarely occur; if they do, they are just locally very limited heat thunderstorms. As a source of moisture, snow is negligible compared to other water surfaces, especially the sea.
The weather is much more influenced by the general circulation of air masses (anticyclones and cyclones) in our temperate geographical latitudes, which is affected by numerous factors. In general, we can say that this summer so far the paths of cyclones and upper cores of cold air over our areas have been frequent and long-lasting; on the other hand, paradoxically, e.g., in Great Britain, there have been long periods of stable anticyclones.
Long-term weather forecast - you may be right or not - but the reasons you use to justify it certainly do not hold. The weather is still such a complicated and not fully explained system that long-term forecasts are risky and quite unreliable even for meteorological and climatological experts. Additionally, the intensive and long-term changing of established climate patterns (read: climate change) contributes to this. Globally, we can say that they bring changed precipitation patterns and higher temperatures and thus greater intensity of weather phenomena and, from humanity's view, catastrophic consequences. What this trend means concretely for a specific area, e.g., Slovenia, time will show.
triglavski
7.7.2009 The theory can hold or not, but practice shows that it is so. Continental Europe, which of course has no sea, is a small local village, so local influences too. Anyway, we'll see. Definitely, this year's weather is a disturbing factor for activities in the mountains, which will also show on visits. Maybe it's even good in some sense. The mountains will rest from big crowds.
m''re 1
7.7.2009 The influence of the sea and oceans is still very strong in almost the entire continental Europe. As a ''''local'''' of the beautiful Soča Valley, you should know that well.
Practice this year can show as you say. What interests me is the explanation for the ''''rainy'''' summer that follows a relatively ''''dry'''' winter? Or vice versa, a snow-rich winter and then a dry, hot summer? This sequence has already happened and will most likely happen again.
I agree with you that weather as a disturbing factor for mountain visits actually isn't so bad, especially from the view of ''''regular'''' visitors.
Which is absurd in its own way. Many hikers/mountaineers, who like to distance themselves from the ordinary excursion-tourist ''''rabble'''', have today several times better gear than their parents and grandparents, not speaking of pioneer conquerors of the uncultivated world. When a few rain drops fall, they prefer a walk in the BTC than e.g. to Grmada.
Nothing doing, we have become quite pampered and ''''fast-food''''.
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