Snow conditions 10.1.2023

General danger level - Tuesday, 10. 1. 2023
Danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: new snow, wind-blown snow, weak layers
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is above about 1800 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower down MODERATE, level 2. Especially steeper slopes and places with wind-blown snow are dangerous. From steep slopes, individual loose snow avalanches of new, poorly bonded snow can release, and a slab avalanche can be triggered by minor loading of the snowpack on sufficiently steep slopes. Ridges are wind-scoured and icy, new ice formations have occurred.

Snow conditions
In the mountains, 10 to about 30 cm of snow has fallen in the last 48 hours, in the western and southern Julian Alps up to about 80 cm, most in the Soča region, also depending on altitude. The new snow is dry and light in the high mountains and strongly wind-blown, lower down wet and soft. Wind-scoured areas in the high mountains are hard and icy in places. There are many snowdrifts.

Forecast weather development
Today partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness, more on the east. Summits will occasionally be in clouds. Moderate to strong northerly wind will blow, weakening in the afternoon. Zero isotherm at about 1500 m above sea level. Tomorrow, Wednesday, initially mostly clear, then partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness. In the morning light to moderate northerly wind, weakening during the day. Warmer air will flow in, in the afternoon zero isotherm already just above 2000 m. On the night to Thursday it will cloud over and there will be transient snowfall in the mountains. Probably 5 to 10 cm of snow can fall. Transient moderate northerly wind will blow. On Thursday morning it will clear, in the afternoon a southwesterly will blow.

Tendency of snow conditions
Avalanche and snow conditions will change only slowly in the high mountains. Danger will persist longer due to numerous snowdrifts on all sides of ridges and passes, and also due to the weak layer that will be under the new snow. Temperature above about 1900 m will remain below zero until Friday most of the time, so the new snow will transform and settle only slowly, occasionally it will still be transported by wind of variable direction. Precipitation on the night to Thursday will not affect avalanche conditions much, because there will be too little. During this time you can trigger a dry slab avalanche already with minor loading in places with wind-blown snow on sufficiently steep slopes, from steep slopes individual smaller loose snow avalanches will also be possible. Below about 1800 m danger will be much lower.

Next issue: Thursday, 12. 1. 2023

Source: ARSO