Snow conditions 10.2.2021

Danger is level 4 on the European five-level scale - HIGH.

Main problem: new snow, wet snow, wind-packed snow



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger in the high mountains of the Julian Alps, above about 1800 m elevation, is HIGH, level 4, lower down and elsewhere CONSIDERABLE, level 3. In the high mountains, due to the large amount of new snow, numerous slopes with moderate incline are dangerous, especially northern slopes where the strong south wind deposited snow. Medium to large dry snow avalanches are expected. Primarily at elevations below 1500 m, the snowpack is wet and in places soaked to the ground, especially on steep slopes and gullies where wet snow avalanches and slab avalanches will still release today.



Snow conditions

It is snowing in the mountains, the snow line is currently in the Upper Sava Valley area and in Bohinj down to the ground, elsewhere mostly up to around 1200 m elevation, but rising slowly. In the high Julian Alps, 20 to 50 cm of snow has fallen in the last 24 hours. It snowed at temperatures slightly below freezing, so the snow is relatively moist; above about 1800 m, the snow was dry and not bonded to the base, which is also loose. A moderate southwest wind blew, transporting snow and building new cornices, wind slabs, and pillows. The snowpack in the high mountains is soft and loose, with deep sinking. Below about 1500 m, the snow is wet and waterlogged.



Forecast weather development

Today cloudy with precipitation that will spread eastwards during the day, with considerably less there. The snow line will mostly be between 700 and 1300 m above sea level, initially lower, temporarily rising during the day, then falling again; tonight into Thursday, especially in the east and southeast, possibly even to lowlands in places. Moderate to strong southwest wind will blow. The freezing level is currently at about 1400 m elevation, lower in the north. On Thursday, it will clear from the north, with strengthened winds from northern directions. It will cool strongly. On Friday and Saturday, mostly clear and cold. Mostly weak northeast wind.



Trend in snow conditions

Today and in the first part of the night into Thursday, another 20 to about 40 cm of snow will fall, most in the Julian Alps and the western and central Karawanks. Below about 1500 m elevation, the snow will likely bond well to the base; higher up, it will remain loose and unbonded. The wind will create new drifts, today on the eastern and northern sides of ridges and saddles, tomorrow on the southern ones. The strong cooling will preserve the loose and unstable layer of new snow in the high mountains; lower down, below about 1500 m, avalanche conditions will be somewhat more favorable. In the high mountains, the danger will initially remain HIGH and will only decrease slowly in the coming days. Spontaneous sloughing of dry, unbonded snow from sufficiently steep slopes is expected; cornices will also be dangerous, potentially releasing on their own or with minimal load. On sun-exposed mid-mountain slopes, a crust will form due to solar influence; in the high mountains, it will likely be too cold for that. Therefore, conditions in the mountains will be very DEMANDING in the coming days.



Next issue: Saturday, 13.2.2021



Source: ARSO