Snow conditions 11.1.2016

AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT



Avalanche danger is currently considerable, 3rd degree, in the high mountains of the Julian Alps above about 2000 m elevation, elsewhere above this elevation 2nd degree, lower down and elsewhere in our mountains low, 1st degree.



The snowpack is loose and poorly bonded in the high mountains, elsewhere mostly stable.



The risk is considerable in the high mountains. Numerous small and also individual medium-sized avalanches of new, unbonded snow can release from steeper slopes. Lower down and in the eastern part of our mountains there is too little snow for the risk to increase.





SNOW CONDITIONS and CURRENT STATE OF THE SNOWPACK



In recent days there has been occasional snowfall in the high mountains. Up to noon today, up to about 50 cm of snow has fallen in the Julian Alps, more in the Bovec area. Elsewhere in the high mountains there was considerably less new snow. Below about 1800 m there was mostly no snowfall. It snowed mostly on dry ground. The new snow has bonded quite well with it, but due to the greater quantity the snowpack has become conditionally unstable. The snow is light and soft. The southwest wind has drifted quite a bit of it into wind slabs. On wind-exposed locations the new snow is almost completely scoured to the ground.



The height of the snowpack is very uneven. The most snow is in the high Julian Alps, from 50 to about 80 cm. Elsewhere in the high mountains there is snow only up to about 20 cm or even less, lower down it is bare.



FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT



This afternoon and the first part of the night there will still be heavy precipitation, which will ease in the second part of the night and partly clear up. Tomorrow it will be partly clear with variable cloud cover, west to northwest wind still blowing, but considerably weaker than today. Wednesday will also have fairly sunny weather. It will slowly cool down. The freezing level will be tomorrow at elevation between 1200 and 1500 m, on Wednesday around 1200 m elevation.



In the first part of the night there will still be precipitation. The snow line will slowly descend to about 1000 m elevation, but most precipitation will fall in warm air with snow line above about 1800 m. By morning up to about 50 cm more snow can fall in the high Julian Alps, elsewhere much less. Strong southwest wind will transport it into drifts and build cornices. Tomorrow and Wednesday the wind will weaken considerably.







SNOW CONDITIONS TREND



In the high mountains the snowpack will thicken somewhat overnight, and some snow will also fall a bit lower. Tomorrow and Wednesday the new snow will settle and begin to metamorphose. West and northwest wind will transport snow into drifts on wind-exposed locations. Initially avalanches of unbonded snow will still release from steeper slopes, but by midweek the snowpack will have settled a bit. It will still be potentially unstable. Especially dangerous will be spots with wind-loaded snow and steeper slopes.



Next report will be issued on Wednesday, 13.1.2016



Source: ARSO