1.01.2018
General danger level - Monday, 1. 1. 2018
The danger is level 3 on the European 5-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: new snow, wind slab
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is currently above about 1800 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3, and lower down MODERATE, level 2. Steeper slopes with wind slab are particularly hazardous, where even a small load can trigger a slab avalanche. Conditions are changing rapidly today due to new snowfall.
Snow conditions
In recent days, the snowpack has settled and transformed due to renewed warming, and new cornices have formed in the high mountains with the southwesterly wind. Lower down, the snow has become wet and frozen at night. The snowpack is mostly soft in gullies and sheltered areas, while on sun-exposed slopes there is often a crust, sometimes formed by wind. There are many cornices and slabs, wind-exposed areas are scoured, sometimes down to the old base. Today it is snowing on such a base.
Forecast weather development
Today it will be cloudy. Precipitation will intensify and cover all of Slovenia in the afternoon. A moderate to strong southwesterly wind will blow, turning to northeasterly in the afternoon. It will cool down, and the snow line will drop to the lowlands in many places by evening. Tomorrow it will be moderately to mostly cloudy, with more sunshine expected in the afternoon from the west. The wind will be from the north to northwest, of moderate strength, possibly strong in the high mountains and towards the east. On Wednesday it will be partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness at first. Towards evening and overnight to Thursday there will be transitory snowfall again, but the amount of new snow will be small. A very strong westerly to southwesterly wind will blow.
Trend in snow conditions
Today 20 to about 40 cm of snow will fall in the mountains, which above about 1800 m will bond poorly to the base, while lower down it will be wet and bond better to the old snow. The wind will form cornices and slabs, and new snow will cover old slabs in many places. As it cools down, the snow will remain light and soft. On Wednesday it will warm up slightly again, but above all a very strong southwesterly wind will blow, scouring the new snow in many places. Numerous new slabs and cornices will form. These will pose the main hazard in the coming days. Only renewed warming will gradually stabilize the snowpack somewhat.
Next issue: Thursday, 4. 1. 2018
Source: ARSO