Snow conditions 11.2.2022

General danger level - Friday, 11. 2. 2022
Danger is level 1 on the European five-level scale - LOW.
Main problem: wind-blown snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is mostly LOW, level 1. Especially on wind-swept and therefore icy places, there is HIGH SLIPPING DANGER. The snowpack is mostly stable. Only on steep, shady high-mountain slopes are rare spots where individual old slabs can release under heavy load. Caution also in areas with fresh wind-blown snow, which will crust further today during the day on sun-exposed aspects due to warm weather.

Snow conditions
Snow conditions are changing only slightly. On Wednesday and Thursday, during the day due to pronounced warming, snow crusted on sun-facing aspects during the day and froze at night. Especially on sun-exposed mid-mountain aspects, snow is also slowly melting, in the shade snow remains dry and frozen. The snowpack is strongly wind-transformed, there are also many bare spots. In shady lee aspects and especially in gullies there is about 5 cm of powder that fell during the last snowfall. Locally on the snowpack or on rocky ground there is also a layer of ice. Slipping danger is already quite high.

Forecast weather development
Today it will initially still be mostly clear, cloudy and foggy in the hills of northern Primorska and Notranjska and on the southern and western foothills of the mid-mountains of the Julian Alps. In the afternoon it will cloud over everywhere, summits will occasionally be in clouds. Especially in the prealpine region, in the southern and western Julians there will be light precipitation. The snow line will be at about 1400 m above sea level. Initially a weak to moderate westerly wind will blow, towards evening a strengthening northerly. In the evening and night to Saturday there will be slightly more precipitation especially in the Snežnik area. Temperature at 1500 m around 1, at 2500 m around -4 °C. In the evening it will cool significantly. On Saturday after a fairly clear morning cloudiness will increase, only in the western Julians and western Karawanks and also elsewhere above about 1800 to 2000 m it will remain mostly clear. A weak, initially moderate easterly wind will blow in the high mountains. Temperature at 1500 m around -6, at 2500 m around -9 °C. On Sunday mostly clear with some high cloudiness. A weak southwesterly will blow again, which will gradually strengthen in the afternoon. Slightly warmer again. At 1500 m midday around -2, at 2500 m around -6 °C. On Monday we expect gradual weather deterioration. Clouding from the west, especially in the prealpine region of western and southern Slovenia there will be occasional light precipitation. The snow line will initially be below 1000 m above sea level, during the day it will start to rise. A strengthening westerly to southwesterly wind will blow. At 1500 m midday around -1, at 2500 m around -6 °C.

Trend in snow conditions
Today too, snow will crust during the day and soften slightly on the surface. Towards evening due to pronounced cooling it will start to freeze. With the passage of the cold front this evening, about a centimeter of new snow may fall, somewhat more in the Snežnik area. Snow conditions at the end of the week will not change much. The snowpack will mostly remain hard and frozen. Slipping danger will still be HIGH. Only on pronounced sun-facing aspects will snow crust slightly on Sunday during the day. At the beginning of next week we expect a more pronounced weather change. The next avalanche bulletin will be published on Monday, 14.2.2022.

Next publication: Monday, 14. 2. 2022

Source: ARSO