Snow conditions 11.3.2020

Danger is 3rd degree on the European 5-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.

Main problem: wet snow, wind-packed snow

Danger pattern: Spring situation

Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger is currently above about 1500 m altitude CONSIDERABLE, 3rd degree, lower down small, 1st degree. Due to warming and the influence of the sun, wet snow avalanches will spontaneously release on sun-exposed and sufficiently steep slopes. In the high mountains, on the northern and eastern sides of ridges and passes, there are still places with wind-packed snow where you can trigger slab avalanches. On wind-exposed slopes where the new snow is scoured to the old base, there is a danger of gliding avalanches.



Snow conditions

There is plenty of snow in the high mountains, below about 1500 m it decreases rapidly. Snow conditions vary. On sunny slopes, the snow froze overnight, but during the day it will soften and especially in the mid-mountains melt faster. Due to the significant warming, on sun-exposed slopes even in the high mountains it will start to transform faster today. In shaded slopes in the high mountains, the snow is still light. There are many wind drifts and slabs. Wind-exposed ridges are heavily scoured, and especially in shaded slopes there are icy patches.



Forecast weather development

Today it will be mostly clear, but especially in the eastern mountain ranges there will still be some high clouds in the morning. In the high mountains, a moderate northwesterly wind will blow, in the mid-mountains mostly a weak westerly wind. It will be warm! Temperature at 1500 m around 9, at 2500 m around 2 °C. On Thursday mostly clear, but in the afternoon clouds will start to gather especially above the foothills of the Julian Alps and in the mid-mountains of the western Julians. A weak to moderate westerly to southwesterly wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m from 3 to 8, at 2500 m around 3 °C. On Friday mostly cloudy and also foggy. Initially, small precipitation will appear especially in the western mountain ranges. The snow line will be high, above 2000 m. In the afternoon and evening, a cold front will pass us. Precipitation will temporarily strengthen a bit but quickly stop. It will cool down, the snow line will drop to around 1300 m altitude. Up to 5 cm of snow is expected.



Tendency of snow conditions

On Thursday as well, due to sunny weather and a warm air mass, there will be a pronounced DAILY CYCLE of snow and avalanche conditions. At night and in the morning, the snow will be frozen and more stable, but during the day the snow cover will juice up and destabilize, especially on sun-exposed slopes. In the middle of the day and in the afternoon, we can thus expect individual wet snow avalanches on southern slopes, and in shaded slopes slabs will also release more easily under the load of the snow cover. On Friday, we will initially still be under the influence of humid and warm air mass. The snow will juice up everywhere below about 2300 m altitude and also avalanche on sufficiently steep slopes. Avalanche danger will remain MODERATE, 3rd degree. The snow cover is expected to stabilize on Saturday.



Next issue: Friday, 13. 3. 2020



Source: ARSO