1.02.2019
Danger is 3rd degree on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: new snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: Rain
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is INCREASING and will increase during the day, except in the eastern part of the Kamnik-Savinja Alps and eastern Karawanks, to CONSIDERABLE, 3rd degree. Below the snow line, snow will saturate the snowpack, so wet snow avalanches, including full-depth ones, may release. Above the snow line, avalanches of new, dry snow transported by strong south wind may release.
Snow conditions
There are many wind slabs and slabs that are potentially unstable. With precipitation, conditions change rapidly especially in the western half of our mountains. Fewer precipitations in the eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje.
Forecast weather development
Today cloudy. In eastern Slovenia mostly dry, elsewhere precipitation will intensify. The snow line will rise quickly and in the afternoon will mostly be between 1500 and 1800 m a.s.l., only in closed valleys of northwestern Slovenia possibly lower. Strong south wind will blow. Tomorrow cloudy with precipitation, snow line around 1500 m a.s.l. most of the day. South wind will weaken in the afternoon. Least precipitation in northeastern Slovenia. In the night to Sunday, the snow line will drop below 1000 m a.s.l., precipitation will mostly cease by morning. Sunday variable cloudiness with isolated showers. Freezing level initially between 1400 and 1700 m a.s.l., cooling slowly during the day. Monday mostly dry and even colder.
Tendency of snow conditions
Avalanche conditions will deteriorate rapidly today due to thaw and precipitation. Except in the eastern Karawanks, eastern part of the Kamnik-Savinja Alps and Pohorje, the snowpack will become soaked due to thaw and rain, fastest in the western part of our mountains and hills. Above the snow line, which will be between 1500 and 1800 m in the afternoon, new snow will accumulate. It will snow on a relatively labile old snowpack. Above the snow line, new snow avalanches will start releasing, lower down wet snow avalanches, possibly full-depth ones. Avalanches will also start releasing elsewhere in the mid-mountains of western and central Slovenia where there is sufficient snow, mainly on steep, grassy slopes, but also in forests. In the high mountains of the Julian Alps and western and central Karawanks, 50 to more than 150 cm of snow will fall by Sunday morning, depending on location and elevation. In the Kamnik-Savinja Alps and eastern Karawanks, 20 to 50 cm of new snow, less also due to average lower elevation. On Saturday and Sunday, avalanche danger will be HIGH, 4th degree, in the western and southern Julian Alps possibly even VERY HIGH, 5th degree! Therefore, do not go to the hills and mountains, avoid steeper snow-covered slopes where there is at least 20 cm of snow! Avalanches may occur somewhat higher up even where they have not been for a long time.
Next issue: Monday, 4.2.2019
Source: ARSO