1.02.2021
The danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind-blown snow, weak layers, new snow, wet snow, creeping snow
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger above sea level around 1500 m is CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower down mostly MODERATE, level 2. Yesterday it snowed in the mountains, new snow fell on a harder, crusted base in many places and therefore bonded poorly. Especially in the high mountains and on the Primorska side of the mountains there is a lot of wind-blown snow, fresh snow deposits formed on western and south-western slopes. Even with minor loading you can trigger a slab avalanche. On steep slopes, individual avalanches of dry and poorly bonded snow will still release spontaneously today. Due to thawing, snow and avalanche conditions will change in the coming days.
Snow conditions
Yesterday morning it was still snowing in the mountains. A total of 10 to 30 cm of snow fell, which was relatively moist especially below 1500 m. During snowfall a light wind from easterly directions was blowing, which was more pronounced in the high mountains, especially on the Primorska side of the mountains. Exposed spots are scoured, in places down to the hard and icy base. The snow cover sinks deeply only in more sheltered spots in the high mountains, elsewhere before snowfall a stronger wind was blowing, which considerably reshaped the snow surface. Especially in the high mountains there is still a lot of wind-blown and unprocessed snow, below the forest line conditions are more stable. The main problem can be the newly fallen snow, which fell on icy base in places.
Expected weather development
Today partly clear with moderate cloud cover, initially some slopes of the Kamnik Alps and western Karawanks may still be in clouds. A weak wind from westerly directions will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around -3, at 2500 m around -7 °C. Tomorrow partly clear with some occasional moderate cloudiness. A weak wind mostly from south-westerly directions will blow. A temperature reversal will be present, it will warm up noticeably at altitude. Temperature at 1500 m around 2, at 2500 m around -4 °C. On Wednesday cloudiness will increase from southwest, foggy in many places. Light rain especially in inland and Primorska hills. Clearer weather will remain in eastern Julijcih, Karawanks and eastern part of Kamnik-Savinja Alps. Moderate to strong wind from westerly directions will blow. At 1500 m from 0 to 5, at 2500 m around -1 °C. On Thursday and Friday similar weather will continue, only somewhat warmer.
Trend in snow conditions
Snow conditions will begin to change due to gradual thawing. New snow will thaw slightly on distinctly aspect-exposed locations already today, a crust will form. Tomorrow this process will be somewhat intensified. On steeper and aspect-exposed locations individual wet snow avalanches will start to occur. During the week the effect of thawing will increase, especially in mid-mountain wet snow avalanches will occur. On steep slopes gliding avalanches will also release. Below 2000 m the danger of avalanche release will INCREASE. In high mountains wind will have great influence, transporting snow to eastern slopes. There it will be dangerous for slab avalanches. Ridges will be hard or icy in many places, hence dangerous for slips.
Next publication: Wednesday, 3. 2. 2021
Source: ARSO