Snow conditions 12.3.2018

General danger level - Monday, 12. 3. 2018

Danger is 3rd degree on the European five-point scale - CONSIDERABLE.

Main problem: wet snow, weak layers, new snow

Danger pattern: Spring situation



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE, 3rd degree, during the day it may slightly INCREASE with possible sunny weather especially on sun-exposed slopes. Steep slopes and areas with wind-packed snow are particularly dangerous. There you can trigger an avalanche already with minor additional load on the snowpack. Slabs may also collapse. Due to warming and sunny weather, the danger increases slightly midday and in the afternoon. From steep, grassy slopes, individual ground avalanches can also release mainly midday and in the afternoon, even in lower elevations where the somewhat thinner snowpack is saturated to the ground due to warming and rain.



Snow conditions

Above sea level around 1600 m it snowed. In the Julian Alps 20 to about 40 cm of snow fell, in the western and central Karawanks and in the Kamnik-Savinja Alps 10 to 20 cm. Further east there was very little precipitation. Lower down it rained and the snow settled and melted quickly. The snowpack is soft and loose in most of the high mountains, in the eastern Karawanks mostly crusted. Lower down the snow is wet and softened. In the high mountains there are many new cornices formed by the southwest wind.



Forecast weather development

Today variable to mostly cloudy and foggy in many places. Somewhat more sun in the eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje, where clouds may also build up over the peaks. Occasional local precipitation, partly showers. The snow line will mostly be between 1300 and 1500 m, freezing level at sea level around 1700 m. In the high mountains of the western and central Julians up to 10 to 20 cm of snow by evening, elsewhere no significant amounts. Moderate southwest wind blowing. Tomorrow variable to mostly cloudy and occasionally foggy. Mostly dry in the morning, local precipitation in the afternoon. Wind weak and variable direction. Locally up to about 5 cm of snow may fall, snow line mostly between 1100 and 1400 m, freezing level around 1600 m. On Wednesday mainly in the morning somewhat more sun, then variable cloudy and occasionally foggy. Midday and afternoon local showers. Initially mostly weak northwest wind, which in the afternoon from the west will turn to southwest wind. Freezing level around 1400 m above sea level. On Thursday clouding from the west, in the afternoon precipitation will start to appear in the west. The snow line will initially rise a little.



Tendency of snow conditions

The snowpack will continue to settle quickly and lower down also melt and disappear. In the high mountains, where the temperature will be below zero, the new snow will settle much more slowly, so the cornices will remain potentially unstable for quite some time, also the connection between new snow and crusted base will remain weak for some time. Lower down, where it has rained and will rain, wet snow avalanches, even ground ones, may release from steep slopes. Higher up there will be less spontaneous avalanching, but the snowpack will remain potentially unstable. In sunny weather, conditions will be more unfavorable midday and in the afternoon on sun-exposed slopes.



Next issue: Thursday, 15. 3. 2018



Source: ARSO