Snow conditions 12.3.2021

The danger level is 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.

Main problem: new snow, wind slab

Danger pattern: Snowfall after a prolonged period of cold

Danger pattern: Cold weather, fresh snow not well bonded with wind



Risk assessment

The avalanche danger is MODERATE, level 2 above about 1700 m, and mostly LOW, level 1 at lower elevations. Overnight, particularly on eastern and northern slopes, new wind slabs have formed due to strengthening winds at exposed spots. With a small load, you may trigger small to medium-sized avalanches on locally exposed slopes. The snowpack is otherwise mostly stable, in places it is icy, and similarly on ridges. Therefore, there is a risk of slipping.



Snow conditions

Overnight, a few centimetres of new snow fell on a hard snow base. In the mountains, there is about 10 cm of dry and loose snow on a hard base, locally the amount of dry snow is higher. Overnight, a strong westerly to southwesterly wind blew, which scoured snow down to the hard base at exposed spots. The wind built small wind slabs east and north of ridges and saddles and in places scoured snow into gullies. On pronounced shady slopes, there is a crust under the thin new snow cover, resulting from daytime solar influence in previous days. Especially on slopes exposed to sun and wind, the snowpack is icy.



Forecast weather development

Today it will be mostly cloudy and locally foggy, only in the high mountains of the northern ranges initially partly clear. Occasional precipitation, becoming more frequent in the afternoon and evening. Snow line between 1100 and 1500 m. Moderate southwesterly wind. Temperature at 1500 m around 2, at 2500 m around -4 °C. Overnight into Saturday, it will cool down, snow line dropping below 800 m. Temporarily a strong northeasterly wind. Total snowfall until Saturday morning 5 to 20 cm, more in the Kamnik-Savinja Alps area, Eastern Karawanks, Pohorje and Snežnik. Saturday morning initially mostly clear, cloudiness increasing during the day. More cloudy and foggy in the belt from the Lower Bohinj Mountains ridge to Snežnik and in the western Julian Alps, where small precipitation in the afternoon. Moderate, in high mountains strong southwesterly wind. At 1500 m around 0, at 2500 m around -6 °C. On Sunday, cloudy and foggy again with snowfall. Strong northerly wind. Colder. Midday at 1500 m around -4, at 2500 m around -10 °C. Expect 10 to 30 cm of new snow. Precipitation amount still uncertain. Monday partly clearing, slightly warmer.



Trend in snow conditions

Avalanche danger will gradually INCREASE due to new snow and windy weather. Saturday warmer, also partly clearing, so especially on shady slopes individual small to medium wet snow avalanches possible. In high mountains strong southwesterly wind building new snow deposits. Sunday avalanche danger increases due to new snow to MODERATE level 3. Due to relatively cold weather, the snowpack especially in high mountains will transform more slowly next week.



Next issue: Monday, 15.3.2021



Source: ARSO