Snow conditions 12.4.2021

Danger level is 3 on the European 5-point scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: new snow, wind drifted snow
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after cold

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is currently MODERATE, 2nd level in high mountains, LOW, 1st level lower down. But conditions are CHANGING RAPIDLY, avalanche danger is INCREASING in the western part of our mountains!

Snow conditions
At the end of the week it warmed up slightly in the mountains, there was also some sun. Newer snow has settled therefore, especially on sunny aspects it has also transformed. Snow cover is mostly well transformed, only the newest heavily drifted snow is poorly recrystallized in shade. Especially there slabs remain. Higher up snow is also hard and partly icy.

Forecast weather development
Today cloudy and foggy, only in eastern Karawanks some sun in the morning. Except east, precipitation will occur, more in Julian Alps, especially west and south. Snowfall line initially around 1800 m, lowering towards evening. Precipitation also slowly spreading eastwards. Moderate to strong southwesterly will blow. Overnight strong cooling, snowfall line dropping to sea level around 500 m. Strong northeasterly will blow. Tomorrow cloudy with snowfall, gradually ceasing in afternoon. Moderate to strong northerly to northeasterly wind. Temperature below zero in mountains. Wednesday partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness, eastern part of our mountains cloudy and foggy. Initially moderate to strong northerly wind weakening during day. Temperature below zero. Thursday initially mostly clear. During day cumulus clouds and some snow flurries forming. Some summits occasionally in clouds. Cold, weak to moderate northerly wind.

Trend of snow conditions
By tomorrow afternoon 20 to 50 cm snow above around 1800 m in high mountains, less east, possibly more in western and southern Julian Alps. Except above around 2300 m snow initially wet bonding to base, higher dry, weak layer under new snow. Initially southwesterly, then northerly and northeasterly transporting snow. Numerous new slabs forming. Lower initially rain, then snow, sometimes on bare ground. Snow and avalanche conditions will change greatly. Avalanche danger will INCREASE and already today afternoon west presumably CONSIDERABLE, 3rd level, tomorrow also elsewhere above sea level around 1500 m. Dangerous drifted snow areas and steep slopes where slab avalanche can be triggered with minor snow cover load, from steep slopes numerous small and individual medium sized dry snow avalanches can release spontaneously. On ridges and other drifted sites glide risk. From Wednesday sunny weather also affecting avalanche conditions, danger higher mid-morning to late afternoon on sun-facing slopes. Conditions demanding.

Next bulletin: wednesday, 14. 4. 2021

Source: ARSO