Snow conditions 12.5.2021

The danger level is 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wet snow, new snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold

Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is above about 1700 m MODERATE, level 2, lower down LOW, level 1. Steep slopes with wet snow are particularly hazardous. The snowpack is wet and does not provide good support; small wet snow slab avalanches can release under minor loading. Spontaneous slab avalanches are less likely, but wind slabs and cornices in the high mountains can still collapse due to warming.

Snow conditions
Over the past two days, the snowpack has melted rapidly due to sun and high air temperatures, especially on sun-exposed and lower slopes where bare patches have increased. Overnight it cooled slightly, but due to cloudy weather with precipitation, the snowpack did not freeze. The snowpack is particularly in the mid-mountains very wet and saturated to the ground. The snow line is currently at about 2400 m; above it, the snowpack is firmer. Above about 2300 m, 5 to 10 cm of wet snow has fallen. Wind slabs and cornices persist in the high mountains. The new snow that fell in May has largely slid off.

Forecast weather development
Today it will be cloudy and foggy with frequent precipitation. The snow line will be around 2000 m. Winds will mostly be light and variable. Temperatures at 1500 m around 5, at 2500 m around 0 °C. Similar weather on Thursday. In the morning mostly dry at first, showers developing in the afternoon, becoming frequent. Thunderstorms possible. Slightly cooler, at 1500 m around 5, at 2500 m around -1 °C. On Friday mostly cloudy and quite foggy, frequent local precipitation continuing from the morning. Winds light and variable. At 1500 m around 4, at 2500 m around -2 °C. Weather will not stabilize by the end of the week. Mainly midday and afternoon showers, less frequent on Sunday. Clouds will break during the day.

Trend in snow conditions
In the mid-mountains, the snowpack will continue to recede, snow will not freeze due to cloudy weather. Frequent snowfall in high mountains, above about 2000 m up to 20 or even more than 50 cm of snow expected by Friday morning. Due to showers, new snow depths will vary locally. Most precipitation expected in the western Julian Alps area. With mostly light winds, wet snow will fall, bonding relatively well to the base. Local precipitation will continue into Friday and weekend; considerable snow in high mountains, which will slab with partial clearing on Saturday and especially Sunday daytime. Avalanche danger above about 1700 m will remain MODERATE, likely INCREASING in high mountains by weekend end.

Next issue: Friday, 14.5.2021

Source: ARSO