1.03.2021
Danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wet snow, favourable conditions
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost
Risk assessment
Today, avalanche danger above about 1700 m is MODERATE, level 2, lower down LOW, level 1. On steeper south-facing slopes, gullies and couloirs, snow will become wet during the day, so you can trigger wet loose or slab avalanches more easily there. In the morning and during the day, icy surfaces are also present in some shaded areas and on ridges, posing a risk of slipping.
Snow conditions
The snowpack stabilised and consolidated with cooling. Today it warmed up again, but the air is very dry, meaning that despite positive temperatures, snow will remain dry and frozen in shaded areas, while on sun-exposed sides it will become wet during the day due to solar influence and freeze at night. The snowpack is mostly hard and crusted in the morning and early afternoon, icy in places. During the day it softens on sun-exposed aspects. Wind-exposed areas are wind-packed and icy in places. On south-facing slopes, snow will slowly melt.
Forecast weather development
Today clear. Weak northeasterly wind. Freezing level at about 2300 m. Tomorrow clear, only in the morning and forenoon some clouds in mid-mountain areas with tops at about 1500 m. Weak and variable winds. Freezing level rising to about 2600 m. On Wednesday clear, weak southwesterly wind. Freezing level at about 2800 m. On Thursday mostly clear, clouds starting to build over ridges of the southern and western parts of the Julian Alps and foothills. Southwesterly wind strengthening somewhat.
Trend in snow conditions
Today avalanche conditions will not differ much from previous days, only from late morning to evening snow will be wet and somewhat softened on south-facing aspects. Tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday, snow will be mostly hard and frozen in the morning and early afternoon, later during the day it will remain mostly frozen in shaded areas, but on sun-exposed areas it will become wet and soften, becoming more unstable. There, on steep slopes from late morning to late afternoon, you could trigger a slab or loose wet snow avalanche with a small load on the snowpack. Individual loose avalanches may release spontaneously, but no major spontaneous slab avalanches are expected. Avalanche danger will be MODERATE, level 2 today and in the coming days, somewhat increasing during the day on south-facing slopes. In the morning and in shaded high mountain areas also during the day, there will be a risk of slipping.
Next bulletin: Wednesday, 3. 3. 2021
Source: ARSO