Snow conditions 13.3.2023

General danger level - Monday, 13 March 2023
The danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: new snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold

Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is currently above sea level around 2000 m MODERATE, level 2, elsewhere mostly LOW, level 1. Steeper slopes and especially gullies are more dangerous, where under greater load you can trigger a small wet snow avalanche, a spontaneous wet snow avalanche is not excluded. Wind-exposed locations are scoured to the old, frozen base, so there is a risk of slipping there.

Snow conditions
It has warmed up considerably in the mountains, but the air above around 1700 m is dry, and the sun due to cirrus cloudiness is not strong. Therefore, the snow cover has not softened markedly, but to some extent. The surface has softened a little, in the high mountains, above around 2300 m the snow has mainly remained frozen and dry in the shade. There is quite a bit of wind-drifted snow on eastern slopes. The height of the snow cover is very uneven, southern slopes are in places already quite bare.

Forecast weather development
Overnight to Tuesday it will cloud over, a strong southwesterly will blow. Towards morning, precipitation will start to appear in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks. The snow line will be between 1600 and 1900 m above sea level. Precipitation will slowly intensify and spread eastwards. During the day the snow line will be around 1500 m, descending only in the evening or overnight to Wednesday, when precipitation will begin to weaken. Overnight to Wednesday a north to northeasterly wind will blow, precipitation will weaken rapidly from the north. It will cool. On Wednesday morning mostly cloudy, mainly in the south there will still be minor precipitation. During the day it will clear, in the afternoon individual short-lived showers will form. A wind from northern directions will blow. Zero degrees will be at sea level around 1000 m. On Thursday mostly clear, the wind will weaken somewhat.

Tendency of snow conditions
Until Wednesday morning there will be the most precipitation in the area of the Julian Alps, especially in the western part, and in the western Karawanks. Above around 1500 m, 20 to around 40 cm of snow may fall, which will first be drifted by the southwesterly, then by the northerly. The snow will bond poorly to the base in the high mountains, better in the mid-mountains. There the avalanche danger will increase and be CONSIDERABLE, level 3, elsewhere there will be less snow and it will be MODERATE, level 2. Lower down wet snow will fall, so we do not expect an increase in avalanche danger. It will remain cold until Thursday, but on Friday it will warm up quickly and markedly. On Thursday the snow cover on sun-facing slopes will already melt during the day, freeze at night and a crust will form. On Friday it will heat up quickly and markedly, so the effect of thawing and sun will be even more pronounced. Again, mainly small spontaneous avalanches from steep slopes mainly on sunny aspects will be possible.

Next issue: Thursday, 16 March 2023

Source: ARSO