Snow conditions 13.4.2016

The danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.

Main problem: wet snow

Danger pattern: vn10 Spring situation

Danger pattern: vn4 Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost

Risk assessment

Avalanche danger is low at night and in the morning, level 1, but increases rapidly during the day due to warming to level 2. In lower elevations where there is little snow left, it is level 1. The snowpack is softened due to relatively warm weather, in places soaked to the ground. Therefore it is less stable; from steep, still uncleared slopes, especially midday and in the afternoon, individual wet snow avalanches can release, including ground avalanches. There are still many cornices that can collapse due to the warm weather. On Thursday, the situation will be different due to transient cooling and some new snow above around 1600 m - no daytime travel - level 2.

Snow conditions

At the beginning of the week, sunny weather prevailed. It was relatively warm, the freezing level was mostly between 1900 and 2300 m a.s.l. Snow remained dry only in shady locations in the high mountains, elsewhere it softened and settled during the day, and on partly clear nights a thick crust formed in many places. In the mid-mountains, the snow cover, if any remains, is completely softened. In the Julian Alps at 2500 m there is 210 to about 250 cm of snow, at 1500 m from 70 to about 140 cm. Elsewhere in our mountains at 1500 m from 5 to about 30 cm of snow, less towards the east. Significant snow cover starts at around 1500 m a.s.l., on sunny aspects even above 1700 m, lower in the Julian Alps, higher elsewhere in our mountains. The snowpack will consolidate during the day, on a partly clear night an ice crust may still form that will not support a person's weight. The freezing level is at the height of the highest peaks.

Forecast weather development

On Wednesday, mostly clear in the eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje, elsewhere variable cloudiness and locally foggy. In the afternoon, individual showers in the Julian Alps area, possibly with thunder. Moderate southwesterly wind. Temperature at 1500 m around 8, at 2500 m around 2 °C. On Thursday morning cloudy with precipitation, partly showers. Snow line between 1600 and 1900 m. In the afternoon partly clearing, but cumulus cloudiness forming, possible still individual showers. Moderate northerly to northwesterly wind. Temperature at 1500 m around 4, at 2500 m around -3 °C.

Trend of snow conditions

On Thursday, especially in the Julian Alps, expected above around 1600 m 5 to about 10 cm of new, initially wet snow, which will bond relatively well with the base. Nevertheless, on Thursday and Friday there will transiently be more possibility for triggering small avalanches of poorly bonded new snow, especially from steep slopes and in gullies. With the forecasted renewed warming by the end of the week, the freezing level will already on Friday afternoon rise above 2500 m and the new snow will quickly settle. On partly clear nights it will freeze at night, except in the mid-mountains where it will remain mostly softened. During the day it will soften also in the high mountains, especially on sunny slopes. Lower down it will diminish.



Source: ARSO