Snow conditions 13. 1. 2025

General danger level - Monday, 13. 1. 2025
Danger is 3rd degree on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, weak layers
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind
Danger pattern: Crust covered with snow

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger above 1700 m is CONSIDERABLE, 3rd degree, lower down 2nd degree. Avoid areas of wind slabs, elsewhere apply self-protection measures to reduce snowpack loading. A small slab avalanche can trigger on wind slab with minimal loading, with heavy loading an older weak layer deeper in the snowpack may fail in places - a medium-sized avalanche possible.

Snow conditions
Below 1900 m the old snow base is mainly heavily refrozen especially in the Julian Alps, withstands heavy loading. On this base a few centimetres of dry snow and graupel fell Friday morning, which wind since Saturday afternoon redistributes to lee slopes building deposits. Initially soft wind slab in deposits slowly bonds and is crusty in places (punching), some already bears weight. Wind slab not well bonded to old base, so slab avalanche can trigger with small loading. Above around 1900 m or where ice crust from end of last week's precipitation did not form, deeper weak layer can fail under heavy loading; medium-sized avalanche possible. This threat not limited to wind slab areas.

Forecast weather development
Today Monday and Tuesday morning sunny and cold, at 1500 m around -5, 2000 m -8 °C. Wind calms slightly but blows to end of week. Least wind Tuesday afternoon when moderate in high mountains. Then somewhat warmer, 1500 m around 0 °C, 2000 m around -2 °C. Tuesday afternoon high cloud moves in reaching peaks only Wednesday daytime. Wednesday morning strengthened northerly blows, afternoon cools again, light snowfalls appear continuing to Thursday morning. at 1500 m -3 °C, 2000 m -10 °C. Little precipitation.

Trend in snow conditions
Until Tuesday remains cold, in upper snowpack layers especially above ice crust likely faceting. Wind slab bonding to old base worsens therefore, snowpack stability further decreases. This most pronounced on aspects. Tuesday daytime warms somewhat, sunny weather snow mainly on sunny sheltered slopes below 1500 m moistens then refreezes afternoon, thin crust forms. Snow bonds slowly thus but sites remain in snowpack where layers poorly bonded. Wednesday afternoon light snowing starts, especially in Kamnik-Savinja Alps few centimetres possible, no effect on snowpack stability.

Next issue: Thursday, 16. 1. 2025

Source: ARSO