Snow conditions 13 March 2025

General avalanche danger level - Thursday, 13 March 2025
The danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: weak layers, wind slab, new snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Danger pattern: Rain

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE, level 3 above 1800 m, MODERATE, level 2 lower down. Especially in the high mountains of the Julian Alps, small avalanches of fresh, poorly bonded snow can release from steep slopes, and new wind slabs have formed with the southwesterly wind, where dry bonded slab avalanches can be triggered with a small load. Persistent weak layers buried in the old snow continue to pose a threat - additional loading from new precipitation and wind-drifted snow will overload them in places and increase the likelihood of avalanche release. Below 1600 m, wet snow avalanches may still release due to warm temperatures and rain, and even gliding avalanches on grassy or leaf-covered slopes. Conditions are unfavourable and challenging and will worsen with new precipitation, least so in the eastern Karawanks.

Snow conditions
Until this morning, it snowed in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks down to alpine valleys in places, but there was only up to 5 cm of snow there. Fresh snow above about 1200 m is 10 to 30 cm, locally above 2000 m even more. Further east, it rained even above 1500 m a.s.l. The snow is soft and light, the southwesterly wind is drifting it into wind slabs. The snow line is at 1600 m a.s.l. and especially below 1800 m the snow is wet, a bit lower even soaked by rain, and quite a bit has melted. Conditions are changing rapidly.

Forecast weather development
Today, Thursday, it will be variable to mostly cloudy, hills in western and central Slovenia will mostly be in clouds. Further east it will partially clear, but peaks there may also be in clouds. Except in the eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje, there will be occasional light local precipitation, more likely in the hills of western and southern Slovenia. The snow line will be around 1600 m. A strong southwesterly wind will blow. Overnight into Friday, precipitation will intensify and gradually spread eastwards in the morning. The snow line will generally rise, but fall towards evening. Only in the northern part of the Julian Alps and in the western and central Karawanks will the snow line remain lower, around 1000 m, and in closed valleys even lower. It will rise somewhat when precipitation weakens. In the morning, the southerly wind will strengthen, in the afternoon weaken and turn southwesterly. In the mid-mountains of northwest Slovenia, the wind will be weaker, possibly from northerly directions. In the afternoon, precipitation will quickly weaken and stop in many places. Overnight into Saturday, a new wave of precipitation from the south will affect Slovenia, the snow line will then be lower, mostly between 900 and 1100 m, slightly higher in the western Julian Alps. During the day, precipitation will weaken, occurring occasionally mainly in the hilly areas of western Slovenia.

Trend in snow conditions
SNOW AND AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ARE CHALLENGING AND WILL CHANGE AND WORSEN IN THE COMING DAYS. The focus of avalanche activity will shift to high altitudes due to large amounts of new snow, weak layers in the old snowpack, and wind. Already by this morning, more than 30 cm of snow has fallen in the western Julian Alps, and by Saturday afternoon, more than a metre could fall there, a little less in the rest of the Julian Alps, 50 to 80 cm in the western and central Karawanks, a bit less in the Kamnik-Savinja Alps, and the least in the eastern Karawanks. Strong southerly and southwesterly winds will drift snow into wind slabs, creating cornices. MOUNTAIN VISITS ARE NOT RECOMMENDED!

Next issue: Friday, 14 March 2025

Source: ARSO