Snow conditions 14.1.2022

General danger level - Friday, 14. 1. 2022
The danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, wet snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold

Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is currently above about 1800 m sea level MODERATE, level 2, lower down LOW, level 1, but it will INCREASE during the day due to warming. Especially south-facing slopes are dangerous, where there is a lot of fresh wind-drifted snow which can release upon greater loading of the snowpack. During the day, we expect the bonding of the wind slab to the old snow base to weaken, hence spontaneous snow avalanches will be possible. On distinct sun-exposed aspects that were less exposed to wind, a wet snow avalanche may also occur. In the high mountains, wind slab is also present on north-facing slopes, but there it has bonded better to the base. Steeper gullies with larger amounts of wind slab are also dangerous. Wind-exposed locations are heavily scoured, even to the old, partly icy base, hence there is a risk of slipping there.

Snow conditions
In the mountains, a period of dry and mostly clear weather continues. Snow conditions are very variable. Already on Thursday daytime it warmed up considerably. On sun-exposed slopes below around 1800 m, the snowpack surface melted, then froze overnight. A crust formed. In locations not too exposed to the influence of sun and wind, the top layer of the snowpack is still loose. Due to considerable temperature differences within the snowpack, faceting has occurred. Wind-exposed places, mainly above the treeline, are heavily scoured even to the old snow base or bare ground. Locally icy. Also on Wednesday and Thursday, moderate to strong winds from northern directions blew in the high mountains, occasionally still transporting snow. There are many slabs, mostly on south-oriented slopes.

Forecast weather development
The period of dry and stable weather will continue. In lower elevations there will be a pronounced temperature turnaround. Today clear. Weak to moderate northerly wind blowing. Even warmer. Temperature at 1500 m around 8, at 2500 m around 2 °C. On Saturday mostly clear, some low clouds in the mid-mountains. Weak northerly wind. Slightly cooler. Temperature at 1500 m around 4, at 2500 m around 0 °C. Also on Sunday mostly clear with some high cirrus cloudiness. Mostly weak westerly wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around 4, at 2500 m around -1 °C, cooling in the afternoon. On Monday transient cloudiness. Northerly wind will strengthen again, slightly cooler.

Trend in snow conditions
Due to warming, the snowpack on sun-exposed aspects will transform somewhat faster, this process will be more pronounced mainly below sea level around 2000 m. Overnight the snowpack will still freeze and melt during the day. In lower elevations snow will also melt. Due to warming, snow on sun aspects will become somewhat unstable during the day, therefore on steep slopes with wind slab you may trigger a slab avalanche more easily. Tomorrow around midday and in the afternoon, a cohesive snow slab avalanche may also release spontaneously from steep slopes. Due to cooling, the snowpack will stabilize on Monday. In shaded aspects conditions will remain more or less unchanged. The next avalanche bulletin will be published on Monday, 17.1.2022.

Next issue: Monday, 17. 1. 2022

Source: ARSO