Snow conditions 14.2.2022

General danger level - Monday, 14. 2. 2022
Danger is level 1 on the European 5-level scale - LOW.
Main problem: wind slab, new snow, weak layers
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost
Danger pattern: Snowfall after prolonged cold period

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is mostly LOW, level 1. Particularly in wind-scoured and therefore icy areas, there is a HIGH RISK OF SLIPPING. The snowpack is mostly stable. Only on steep, shady high-mountain slopes are there rare spots with individual old slabs that can release under heavy load. Snow and avalanche conditions will begin to change due to new snow.

Snow conditions
Snow conditions did not change much at the end of the week. Due to dry and relatively cold air at altitude, the snow remained dry and mostly frozen, only in lower and sunny locations did it soften slightly on the surface during the day and freeze at night. The old snowpack is heavily transformed by wind and also by sun on sunny slopes, with crust present in places. Snow conditions change rapidly from place to place. There are also many bare areas. Locally, there is a layer of ice on the snowpack or on the rocky base. In shady lee locations and especially in gullies, there are a few centimetres of loose snow.

Forecast weather development
Today it will cloud over quickly from the southwest, with some clear skies initially still in the mountains in the north and east. During the day it will be cloudy and foggy. Light precipitation will start to appear in the morning, more frequent in the west. The snow line will initially be below 800 m, but will start to rise during the day. A moderate to strong southwest wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m will be around -2 midday, at 2500 m around -6 °C. On Tuesday it will be cloudy and foggy. Precipitation will intensify in the west in the morning and spread over all mountains by midday. In the afternoon, precipitation will weaken, with local showers occurring. The snow line will be between 800 and 1300 m above sea level. It will be lower in the area of the eastern Julian Alps and western Karawanks, where it will snow all the way to the valleys. Initially a moderate to strong wind from southerly directions will blow, but towards evening a weak to moderate northerly wind will pick up. Temperature at 1500 m around -1, at 2500 m around -6 °C. On Wednesday it will initially clear up. Low cloudiness will form, reaching up to about 1000 m above sea level. Midday it will moderately cloud over from the northwest, with summits occasionally in clouds. A weak to moderate westerly wind will blow, strengthening somewhat in the afternoon. Temperature at 1500 m around -2, at 2500 m around -7 °C.

Tendency of snow conditions
Today snow conditions will not change significantly yet, snow will mostly remain hard and frozen. Only in lower locations below around 1000 m will the snow soften. On Wednesday, after a longer period of mostly dry weather, more abundant snowfall is expected. The most snow will fall in the western and southern Julian Alps from 30 up to 50 cm, elsewhere in the Julian Alps area and western Karawanks from 20 to 40 cm, in the Kamnik-Savinja Alps area and eastern Karawanks from 10 to 30 cm. Snow will be wet below around 1300 m above sea level, drier higher up. Since it will snow on a hard and partly icy base, the new snow will bond poorly. There will be a weak layer between the old and new snow. During snowfall, a moderate to strong southerly wind will also blow, building slabs especially on northern slopes. Avalanche danger will increase and will be CONSIDERABLE level 3 above around 1500 m in the Julian Alps area and western Karawanks, lower down and elsewhere mostly MODERATE level 2. The next avalanche bulletin will be published on Wednesday, 16.2.2022.

Next publication: Wednesday, 16. 2. 2022

Source: ARSO