Snow conditions 14.3.2018

General danger level - Wednesday, 14. 3. 2018

Danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.

Main problem: wet snow, weak layers

Danger pattern: Spring situation

Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE, level 3, during the day with possible sunny weather it slightly INCREASES especially on sun-exposed slopes. Steep slopes and areas with wind-blown snow are particularly dangerous. There you can trigger an avalanche even with a small load on the snowpack. A wind slab may also collapse. With possible sunny weather the danger increases somewhat in mid-day and afternoon. From steep grassy slopes below around 1500 m individual slab avalanches may also release mainly mid-day and afternoon, also in lower elevations where due to warming and rain the somewhat thinner snowpack is saturated to the ground.



Snow conditions

The snowpack is melting and disappearing lower down, higher up settling and transforming. The snowline is these days at around 1700 m elevation. Higher up the snow remains quite poorly transformed, in shady locations often still dry and soft. Elsewhere a crust prevails or lower wet, southern snow.



Forecast weather development

Variable weather continues. Also yesterday and in the first part of the night there were some local precipitation, during which above around 1300 m locally up to about 5 cm snow fell, lower it rained. Similar weather today as well. Tomorrow moderately, occasionally mostly cloudy, cloudiness will increase from the west mid-day and afternoon. Smaller precipitation will appear especially in the western Julian Alps already in the morning and forenoon, then strengthen in the west and evening and night to Friday temporarily spread eastward. In the western part of our mountains up to Friday morning 10 to 30 cm snow may fall. Snowfall line initially between 1000 and 1300 m, in the night to Friday dropping below 1000 m. In the eastern part of Kamnik-Savinja Alps and eastern Karawanks 5 to 10 cm snow will fall. During snowfall southwesterly wind will blow. By Friday morning precipitation will mostly cease, during the day they will occasionally appear especially in hills of western Slovenia, but little. New batch of precipitation expected Saturday morning. This weather change will also bring strong cooling. Snowfall line will drop to lowlands. From Sunday onward it will be cold for quite some time.



Trend of snow conditions

The snowpack will continue to settle rapidly and lower also melt and diminish. In high mountains where temperature is below zero, loose slabs will remain potentially unstable for quite some time. Lower down slab avalanches may still release from steep slopes. With sunny weather conditions will be more unfavourable mid-day and afternoon on sun-exposed slopes. Avalanche danger will due to new snow by Friday morning slightly increase in Julian Alps, western and central Karawanks and western part of Kamnik-Savinja Alps.



Next issue: Saturday, 17. 3. 2018



Source: ARSO