Snow conditions 14.4.2021

The danger is at level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: new snow, wind slab
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE, 3rd level, above sea level around 1600 m, and MODERATE, 2nd level, lower down. Due to the large amount of new snow, steeper slopes in the high mountains remain dangerous, where spontaneous dry snow avalanches are expected. Above around 1600 m there is a lot of wind-blown snow, so a slab avalanche can be triggered even by minor loading.

Snow conditions
Yesterday it snowed in the mountains, precipitation weakened during the day and stopped. In the high mountains, a total of 30 to 50 cm of snow has fallen since Sunday, and up to 80 cm in the area of the southern and western Julian Alps. Below 2000 m above sea level, the amount of new snow decreases rapidly, mostly 20 to 30 cm has fallen. During snowfall and especially during the night to Wednesday, a moderate to strong northerly wind blew, transporting fresh snow to southern slopes and especially into gullies, building new deposits, slabs and cornices. The wind has currently somewhat weakened, but new snow drifts are still forming. Wind-blown snow in particular has bonded poorly with the old snow cover, so a slab avalanche can be triggered even by minor loading. Conditions are particularly DEMANDING in the high mountains. There is a risk of slipping on very wind-exposed spots.

Forecast weather development
Today, the eastern part of our mountains will be mostly cloudy and foggy in places, elsewhere partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness. Initially, a moderate to strong northerly wind will blow, weakening during the day. Temperature at 1500 m will be around -3°C at midday, at 2500 m around -12°C. On Thursday, it will be partly clear at first, then variable cloudy with some snow showers in the afternoon. A light to moderate northerly wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around -4°C, at 2500 m around -12°C. On Friday, clear at first, then variable cumulus cloudiness developing during the day, more in the eastern part of our mountains. Mostly light winds from northerly directions. Somewhat warmer, at midday around -2°C at 1500 m, around -9°C at 2500 m. On Saturday and Sunday mostly cloudy, summits in clouds. Occasionally light snowfall. Easterly winds will strengthen again. Zero isotherm between 1000 and 1500 m above sea level.

Trend in snow conditions
Due to cold weather, the snowpack will transform more slowly, only on sunnier aspects will the snow slightly wet during the day and refreeze at night. Spontaneous wet snow avalanches are possible especially on steep sun-exposed slopes. On wind-loaded spots, the snowpack will remain potentially unstable. Avalanche release danger will remain CONSIDERABLE, 3rd level, above sea level around 1600 m. On Friday it will warm slightly, new snow will transform somewhat faster, so avalanche danger will gradually decrease by the end of the week. Risk of slipping along ridges and other wind-scoured spots. Conditions will remain quite demanding especially in the high mountains.

Next issue: Friday, 16. 4. 2021

Source: ARSO