Snow conditions 15.11.2019

Danger is 3rd level on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.

Main problem: new snow

Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger is in the high mountains of the Julian Alps above approx. 1900 m CONSIDERABLE, 3rd level, below 1800 m and elsewhere in our mountains LOW, 1st level. Medium-sized and smaller avalanches of poorly bonded snow can release from sufficiently steep slopes. There are many wind slabs that can be triggered by minor loading of the snowpack.



Snow conditions

In recent days, temperatures in the high mountains have been below zero, below approx. 1700 m it warmed up slightly above 0 °C during the day. The new snow that fell in the first half of the week has settled and slid somewhat, but in the western part of the Julian Alps in the high mountains it is snowing again. Snow in the high mountains is mostly soft, quite wind-blown on wind-exposed sites, so there are many wind slabs and slabs especially on the northern, western and eastern sides of ridges and saddles. Due to wind influence, snow is crusty in places. By far the most snow is above approx. 1900 m in the Julian Alps, considerably less lower down and in the Kamnik-Savinja Alps and eastern Karawanks.



Forecast weather development

Today there will be precipitation mainly in the area of the Julian Alps, western and central Karawanks and hills of northern Primorska and Notranjska, most in the western Julian Alps. Snow line mostly between 1300 and 1800 m a.s.l. Moderate to strong southerly winds will blow. In the evening and night to Saturday, the precipitation band will move across Slovenia to the east. Tomorrow around noon and in the afternoon, precipitation will intensify again, especially in the west. From afternoon to Sunday afternoon there will be heavier precipitation, occasionally spreading to the east. In the central and northern part of the Julian Alps and western Karawanks, the snow line will mostly be between 900 and 1200 m, elsewhere higher, especially further east and south occasionally up to around 2000 m. Southeast wind will strengthen. On Sunday afternoon, precipitation will gradually subside, until Monday morning mostly dry.



Trend of snow conditions

In the high mountains of the western Julian Alps, up to more than 50 cm of snow may fall by tomorrow morning, elsewhere 10 to about 30 cm. Lower down, where it will rain, snow will melt. By Monday morning, 50 to more than 100 cm of snow will fall in the Julian Alps above approx. 1700 m, elsewhere 20 to about 50 cm, possibly more in the central Karawanks and western part of the Kamnik-Savinja Alps, the amount in this area is not fully predictable. Therefore, avalanche danger will INCREASE again, on Sunday in the high mountains especially of the western Julian Alps it may be HIGH, 4th level. Numerous small and also medium-sized avalanches of poorly bonded snow will release from sufficiently steep slopes, individual large avalanches possible. Many new wind slabs, as wind in the mountains will be strong. In mid-mountains some snow will melt. Visit to high mountains especially in Julian Alps still DISCOURAGED until further notice, conditions will be dangerous, and movement very difficult.



Next issue: Monday, 18.11.2019



Source: ARSO