1.05.2016
General danger level - Sunday, 1 May 2016
Danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: fresh snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: vn6 Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind
Risk assessment
Danger in the mountains will be, especially in the Julians already above around 1700 m above sea level due to larger quantities of new snow CONSIDERABLE, level 3. Especially at places with drifted snow and on steeper slopes, you can trigger a new snow avalanche already with minor additional stress. On sufficiently steep slopes and in gullies, spontaneous slab avalanches are also possible. Lower down the danger is lower, but everywhere where more new wet snow falls on sufficiently steep grassy slopes, the possibility of full-depth glide avalanches increases - MODERATE, level 2.
Snow conditions
CONDITIONS in the mountains are wintery. Until Sunday morning above around 1500 m only a few cm of wet snow has fallen. Until Monday afternoon, however, in the mountains above around 1600 m, this time also in the eastern Karawanks and Kamnik-Savinja Alps in addition to the Julians, another 20 to around 50 cm of new snow can fall. The new snow will fall onto the already partially settled but not yet reworked layer of the last snow, thick up to several 10 cm. Wind in the mountains will blow the new snow into drifts, cornices and slabs will also form. The entire new snowpack will therefore still be unstable and will only settle and transform more quickly in the middle of the week with partly sunny and only gradually warmer weather. In the Julian Alps at 2500 m there is 220 to around 270 cm of snow, at 1500 m from 60 to around 110 cm. Elsewhere in our mountains from 20 to around 70 cm of snow. The consolidated snowpack due to a couple of sunny days and then rain reaches on sun-facing slopes to around 1500 m, on shade-facing to around 1200 m, but in the coming days due to initially rain below 1600 m and then expected at least partly sunny weather it will settle quickly and also disappear in lower elevations - all the way to the tree line.
Forecast weather development
On Sunday it will be cloudy and foggy. Precipitations will occur. The snow line will be above around 1500 m above sea level. Weak to moderate wind from eastern directions will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around 2, at 2500 m -3 degrees C. On Monday cloudy and also foggy. Occasional further precipitations. The snow line will be above around 1700 m above sea level. Moderate to strong wind from eastern directions will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around 4, at 2500 m -2 degrees C.
Trend in snow conditions
The snow line will be at elevations between 1900 and 2200 m these days. The new snow will settle and transform only slowly and consolidate only from Tuesday onwards. Conditions will be particularly unfavourable above around 2000 m, numerous sufficiently steep slopes can also release with minor stress. Lower down, especially on steeper slopes with grassy base and there where the brush is still covered, wet snow avalanches can still release initially. Avalanche danger will therefore decrease only slowly from mid-week - then more spring-like conditions again with a more pronounced daily melt-freeze cycle, crust will form at night, differences between sun-facing and shade-facing slopes will be greater.
Source: ARSO