Snow conditions 15.2.2016
15.02.2016
AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT
Avalanche danger is 3rd degree in most of our mountains above about 1500 m elevation, in lower elevations and in the eastern Karawanks 1st to 2nd degree, depending on elevation.
From Friday to this morning, 30 to 80 cm of new snow has fallen above 1500 m. The zero isotherm was still between 500 and 1000 m on Saturday, rose to 1500 m on Sunday, and this morning is at 1800 m above sea level. With the rising snow line, snow below 1800 m has settled faster, while higher up it remained dry and less cohesive. The snowpack consists of a large number of layers, some of which are poorly bonded to each other. There is little spontaneous avalanching. The snowpack is potentially unstable and under greater load, such as from a hiker or ski tourer, there is a high probability of triggering an avalanche.
SNOW CONDITIONS and CURRENT SNOWPACK STATE
The snowpack is mostly still soft and loose above about 1800 m. There are many wind slabs, and on wind-exposed slopes the snow is quite wind-packed.
In the Julian Alps and western Karawanks, there is 170 to about 200 cm of snow above about 1500 m, and at 1000 m from just a few cm to about 20 cm. Elsewhere in our mountains, there is 40 to 80 cm of snow at 1500 m, higher in the Kamnik-Savinja Alps and central Karawanks even more than 80 cm. The snowpack starts at quite varying elevations, but significant amounts of snow are mostly above about 1000 m, and on the northwest even lower.
FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT
Today it will be cloudy, with precipitation starting during the day. The snow line will drop to about 500 m above sea level overnight into Tuesday. Precipitation will ease by Tuesday morning, latest in the west. Above 1000 m, 5 to 15 cm of snow will fall. Tomorrow it will be cloudy. Precipitation will start during the day and cover the whole country by evening. The snow line will be around 500 m above sea level. Above 1000 m, 20 to 40 cm of new snow will fall. In the mid-mountains, a moderate to strong easterly wind will blow, building snow slabs. On Wednesday during the day, precipitation will ease, latest in the west. The wind will turn to the south and weaken. Thursday and Friday look dry.
SNOW CONDITION TREND
The snowpack will slowly settle and transform. The forecasted new snow from today until Wednesday inclusive will additionally increase the potential instability of the snowpack. In the mid-mountains, where the snowpack is wet, the new snow will bond better to the base, but higher up, the new snow will thicken the current dry layer of poorly bonded snow and increase snowpack instability.
The next report will be issued on FRIDAY, 19.2.2016 in the afternoon.
Source: ARSO