Snow conditions 15. 4. 2024

General danger level - Monday, 15. 4. 2024
Danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wet snow, wind slab
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / thaw after frost

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is LOW in the morning and forenoon, level 1, during the day it increases to MODERATE, level 2 due to daytime thaw. Especially from steeper sunny slopes, smaller wet snow avalanches can still trigger spontaneously. In the morning hours, the snow is frozen, hence the risk of slipping.

Snow conditions
Over the weekend it was very warm in the mountains. With warm weather, the rapid transformation of the snowpack continues, which is also noticeably settling and becoming increasingly wet even in the high mountains. At night a thin crust forms on the surface, which then softens on pronounced shady slopes already in the morning. On shady slopes bare areas extend even above 2000 m, in sunny aspects snow reaches down to 1500-1600 m. On the surface and in the upper layers of snow there is desert dust, which somewhat accelerates snowmelt.

Forecast weather development
Today, on Monday, it will initially be mostly clear with some cumulus cloudiness. During the day, cloudiness will thicken in the Julian Alps area. A strengthened southwesterly wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around 14 °C, at 2500 m around 6 °C. On Tuesday a distinct cold front with abundant precipitation will reach us, cooling rapidly during the day. Moderate to strong southwesterly wind will blow, which will turn to winds from northeast directions towards evening. On Wednesday and Thursday it will be variable to mostly cloudy and much cooler, with some afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Temperature at 1500 m around 0 °C, at 2500 m around -7 °C.

Tendency of snow conditions
On Tuesday a more pronounced deterioration with strengthened wind and snowfall will affect us. In the morning the zero isotherm will still be high, at the altitude of our highest mountains. In the middle of the day it will cool very quickly, in the afternoon the snow line will drop to sea level altitude around 700 m. In the high mountains up to 50 cm of new snow can be expected, in the mid-mountains from 20 cm to 40 cm of snow. The wind will transport the new snow and build cornices. Avalanche danger will INCREASE from Tuesday onwards in the mountains, spontaneous avalanches of poorly bonded snow will occur.

Next issue: Thursday, 18. 4. 2024

Source: ARSO