Snow conditions 16.10.2020

The danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.

Main problem: new snow, wet snow, wind-drifted snow



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger is level 2 - MODERATE. On Thursday there was snowfall in the mountains with moderate easterly winds. Particularly dangerous are steep grassy slopes above about 1500 m a.s.l. and steeper gullies. In the high mountains, dry snow fell onto the old snowpack in windy conditions; there western slopes are especially dangerous, where slab avalanches can also be triggered. Below 1500 m a.s.l. the snowpack thickness decreases rapidly, so avalanche danger is low there.



Snow conditions

On Thursday above about 1500 m a.s.l. 10 to 20 cm of snow fell, up to 40 cm in the high mountains. The snow line was above 1600 m in the morning, but sank to around 1300 m during the day; in the afternoon it snowed in some alpine valleys too, but mostly just dusting white. Thicker snow cover starts above 1200 to 1500 m a.s.l. Above 2000 m the snow is soft and sinks deeply, in the mid-mountains mostly wet snow fell, which bonded relatively well with the older snow base. It bonded less well where it snowed onto grassy ground. The wind formed cornices, mainly on western slopes.



Forecast weather evolution

Friday will be cloudy and partly foggy. Occasional minor precipitation mainly in the morning. Snow line mostly between 1100 and 1300 m a.s.l. Perhaps just one centimetre of new snow. Weak northerly winds blowing, mostly southeasterly in mid-mountains. Temperature at 1500 m around 1, at 2500 m around -5 °C. Northerly wind will temporarily strengthen overnight to Saturday. Saturday partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness, mostly cloudy in the northeast. Afternoon showers possible, above around 1500 m also snow showers. Weak northerly winds. Temperature at 1500 m around 2, at 2500 m around -6 °C. Sunday initially sunny, during the day some variable cumulus cloudiness forming. Weak northwesterly wind. Warmer. Temperature at 1500 m around 3, at 2500 m around -3 °C. Mostly sunny also on Monday, only over hills of western Slovenia will cloudiness increase in the afternoon. Weak southwesterly wind. Temperature at 1500 m around 4, at 2500 m around 1 °C.



Trend in snow conditions

In the high mountains snow will settle and transform only slowly until Sunday inclusive due to cold weather. Overnight to Saturday, due to northerly wind, slabs will form on exposed high mountain parts also on southern slopes. Snow transformation process will be faster mainly on steeper southern slopes below about 2000 m a.s.l. For spontaneous slab release dangerous mainly steeper slopes where there is grassy base. Avalanche danger will remain MODERATE, level 2. From next Tuesday onwards however due to marked warming it will temporarily INCREASE also in high mountains.



Next issue: Monday, 30.11.2020



Source: ARSO