Snow conditions 16.1.2023

General danger level - Monday, 16.1.2023
The danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind-blown snow, new snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost
Danger pattern: Cold weather, fresh loose snow with wind

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is above about 1500 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower MODERATE, level 2. In the mountains, it snowed heavily overnight. Steep slopes are particularly dangerous where snow fell on a hard and partly icy base. Due to weak bonding with old snow, individual avalanches of dry and loose snow can form. Especially around ridges and saddles, slab avalanches can be triggered with minor loading. Since weak layers are now buried under new snow, the danger is difficult to recognize. Below about 1500 m, steep grassy slopes are primarily dangerous.

Snow conditions
Overnight, a cold front passed with abundant precipitation. The snow line dropped to the lowlands. In the mountains, 30 to 60 cm of snow fell. Initially, snow was wetter in the mid-mountains, then increasingly dry. During snowfall, a light to moderate easterly wind blew in the mid-mountains, moderate southwesterly in the high mountains. In sheltered locations, snow is light and sinks deeply, in wind-exposed places the wind transported snow and built new slabs. Snow has bonded relatively poorly to the base, and weak layers are present in the old snowpack, so the snowpack is quite unstable.

Forecast weather development
Today it will be cloudy and foggy. Initially, minor snow showers will occur occasionally, in the afternoon snowfall will intensify. In the afternoon, a strengthened southwesterly will blow again. Temperature at 1500 m around -4, at 2500 m around -8 °C. Overnight transient snowfall, thunderstorms possible. Tomorrow morning partial clearing in the high mountains and west, some lower hills in clouds. In the afternoon rapid clouding again, snow starting. In the morning moderate southwesterly, in the afternoon strengthened southeasterly. Temperature at 1500 m around -3, at 2500 m around -9 °C. Until mid-morning precipitation will cease. During the day variable to mostly cloudy and occasionally foggy, individual snow showers still occurring. In the morning and forenoon moderate southwesterly, weakening in the afternoon. Temperature at 1500 m around -4, at 2500 m around -11 °C. On Thursday cloudy and foggy with light to moderate snowfall. Cooling.

Tendency of snow conditions
In the mountains, the snowpack will continue to accumulate. Until Thursday morning, an estimated 20 to 50 cm of snow will fall, locally possibly more. Most precipitation in the Julian Alps area. Wind will change direction, so numerous deposits on all sides of ridges and saddles. Danger will be more persistent also due to weak layers under new snow. We expect individual spontaneous avalanches with loading of new snow. However, the main danger will be slab avalanches that can be triggered with minor loading. Avalanche release danger will thus remain above about 1500 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower MODERATE, level 2. With possibly larger amounts of precipitation, avalanche release danger may increase further.

Next issue: Thursday, 19.1.2023

Source: ARSO