Snow conditions 16.12.2022

General danger level - Friday, 16.12.2022
Danger level is 3 on the European 5-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind-drifted snow, new snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is above sea level around 1800 m CONSIDERABLE, 3rd level, lower down MODERATE, 2nd level. Particularly dangerous are areas with thicker fresh snow cover, which are found in the high mountains, where spontaneous avalanches are also possible. Due to the strong southwesterly wind, larger areas with wind-drifted snow have formed on eastern and northern slopes. The snow line has at least temporarily risen above sea level 2000 m in places, so wet snow avalanches will also release today. With lower sea level, there is also less snow, so the danger in the mid-mountains is lower.

Snow conditions
Overnight, with the influx of warmer air, the snow line rose. It snowed down to the alpine valleys only in the area of the eastern Julian Alps, elsewhere even in the mid-mountains it rained. In the high mountains, it snowed more abundantly, 20 to 40 cm of snow fell, the most in the western and southern Julian Alps. There are many drifts and slabs, wind-scoured areas are icy in places. Snow is completely dry only above around 2200 m, lower down it becomes increasingly wet. In the mid-mountains, the snow cover is very wet, in places it has also settled considerably and melted.

Forecast weather development
Today it will continue to be cloudy and foggy with occasional precipitation, which will strengthen again in the evening and spread over all mountains. The snow line will slowly start to descend. Overnight to Saturday, it will snow down to the lowlands. The wind will be only light to moderate. On Saturday, precipitation will weaken in the morning and stop in the afternoon. Initially still cloudy and foggy, clearing in the afternoon. Much colder. At 1500 m around -5 °C, at 2500 m around -8 °C. On Sunday, a very dry air mass will reach the mountains, clear skies. In the high mountains, mostly light northwesterly wind, lower down very little wind. In the morning, temperatures in the mid-mountains and high mountains will be near -10 °C, during the day it will warm up noticeably. At 1500 m around -1 °C at midday, at 2500 m around -4 °C. The temperature inversion will strengthen. On Monday partly clear, especially in the morning occasional increased high cloudiness. Light westerly to southwesterly wind. Temperature will be around freezing point both in the mid-mountains and high mountains. A very dry air mass will persist.

Tendency of snow conditions
In total, until Saturday afternoon, 10 to 30 cm of dry snow will fall, more at higher elevations. In the high mountains, it will mostly snow on a soft and slightly base, lower on wet, so the snow will bond better there. The wind during snowfall will be light, so no new snow drifts are expected for the most part. In elevations where it rained today, the new snow will not worsen the avalanche conditions much, as there will be too little of it, and the bond between the base and the new snow will also be relatively good. Higher up, the new snow will slightly increase the possibility of sliding. Conditions in the high mountains will be demanding, due to the new snow the danger will be difficult to recognize. With cooling, icy surfaces will also increase, so the risk of slipping will be high. On Sunday and Monday it will be warmer, but the air will be very dry, so avalanche conditions will not change much. A surface crust will form on the snow cover.

Next issue: Monday, 19.12.2022

Source: ARSO