Snow conditions 16.2.2018

General danger level - Friday, 16. 2. 2018

Danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.

Main problem: wind slab

Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger in the mountains is mostly MODERATE, level 2. Towards noon and early afternoon it increases on sun-exposed slopes above the forest line due to sun and becomes CONSIDERABLE, level 3. Steep slopes and areas with wind slab on southern and south-western aspects are especially dangerous, where avalanches can be triggered with higher loads. Probability increases towards noon and early afternoon. Spontaneous slab release is unlikely.



Snow conditions

The snowpack is everywhere soft in shaded areas and above around 1700 m, and somewhat weak in places. On plateaus and sun-exposed areas it is mainly crusty in the mid-mountains, crust is also on wind-exposed areas where snow is in places heavily wind-packed, even down to the old base layer. Most of the wind slab is on southern and western aspects, more unstable slabs are in shaded areas.



Expected weather development

Today mostly clear, only in the east occasionally moderate to mostly cloudy. Freezing level at around 2500 m above sea level, but below around 1000 m there is still a layer of air with negative temperatures which will warm up during the day. Weak to moderate wind from westerly directions. Midday and early afternoon transient minor precipitation not excluded in eastern Slovenia. Tomorrow mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler. Freezing level at around 1200 m above sea level, mainly in the east occasionally higher. Initially southerly wind turning to southwesterly and strengthening. Sunday night and Sunday cloudy and foggy in the mountains, occasional light snowfall but small amounts, slightly more in the south of the country. Freezing level below 1000 m above sea level. Monday mostly cloudy and locally foggy, higher peaks may be above the clouds.



Trend in snow conditions

Today the snowpack will settle due to warming and sunny weather mainly on sun-exposed slopes and plateaus during the day, freeze at night mainly in the high mountains and in the western and central parts of our mountains. Tomorrow due to more cloudy and somewhat cooler weather the snow will remain frozen or dry, only below around 1200 m it will remain wet from sun in places. The snowpack will transform. In shaded areas snow will remain dry. Avalanche danger will not change much in the coming days and will be mostly MODERATE, level 2. More dangerous will be northern and steeper slopes with wind slab where slabs may remain locally quite unstable.



Next issue: Monday, 19. 2. 2018



Source: ARSO