Snow conditions 16.3.2023

General danger level - Thursday, 16 March 2023
Danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind slab, wet snow
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / thawing after freeze

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is currently above about 1900 m MODERATE, level 2, elsewhere mostly LOW, level 1. More dangerous are areas with wind-blown snow and steep slopes, especially gullies, where with greater load you can trigger a small wind slab avalanche. Wind-exposed locations are scoured to the old, frozen base layer, so there is a risk of slipping there.

Snow conditions
It is cold in the mountains, temperature above freezing up to about 1000 m. Snow that fell on Tuesday is dry or frozen. In recent days, wind mainly in the high mountains continued to transport snow into drifts, which formed on the southern and western sides of ridges and saddles. Today the sun will already affect the snow cover on sun-exposed slopes, but due to low temperatures mainly in the mid-mountains. The surface layer of the snowpack is soft and partially crusted. Wind-exposed locations are scoured to the old base, which is hard and partially icy.

Forecast weather development
Thursday will be mostly clear. Initially a moderate north wind will blow, weakening during the day. Zero isotherm at about 1300 m. Friday will be mostly clear with occasional increased cirrus cloudiness, which may be quite dense. A weak southwesterly will blow. It will warm up, temperature above freezing even on the highest summits. Saturday mostly clear with similar temperatures, the southwesterly will strengthen slightly in the high mountains.

Tendency of snow conditions
Sun and warming will affect snow and avalanche conditions. The snowpack will wetten on sunlit aspects during the day and refreeze at night. The crust will strengthen. In shaded aspects the snow will remain mostly dry. Lower down the snow will also diminish. Avalanche conditions will change during the day. From late morning to late afternoon on Friday and Saturday, the likelihood of spontaneous slab avalanches will increase on steep sun-exposed slopes, in the mid-mountains also wet snow avalanches; danger in the high mountains of the Julian Alps will be CONSIDERABLE, level 3, otherwise it will remain MODERATE, level 2. During this time you may trigger an avalanche there even with a small additional load. Northern slopes will be safer, there primarily watch for slabs and weak layers in the snowpack.

Next bulletin: Friday, 17 March 2023

Source: ARSO