Snow conditions 16.5.2016

General avalanche danger level - Monday, 16 May 2016

Danger level 2 on the European 5-level scale - MODERATE.

Main problem: weak layers

Danger pattern: vn10 Spring situation



Risk assessment

Danger in the mountains above about 2000 m a.s.l. midday and afternoon due to daily warming is MODERATE, level 2, for the rest of the day and lower where there is little snow LOW, level 1. Avalanches can only be triggered with large additional loading on steep slopes and places with wind-packed snow, higher probability on shady slopes. Especially today and tomorrow, individual wet snow avalanches from weekend snowfall are possible in high mountains.



Snow conditions

CONDITIONS in high mountains are winter-spring. End of week mostly cloudy with occasional precipitation in mountains. Freezing level dropped from initial 2400 m below 2000 m. Occasionally snowed below 1500 m a.s.l., but significant amounts only above about 2000 m, up to about 20 cm, locally more. Lower down snow melted. In Julian Alps at 2500 m 270 to about 300 cm snow, at 1500 m up to about 40 cm. Elsewhere in our mountains up to about 60 cm snow. Consolidated snow cover starts at varying altitudes, but mostly lies in high mountains. Snow mostly wet. New snow above about 2000 m froze overnight, softens during day. Old snowpack already well transformed, hence harder.



Forecast weather development

Today still variable cloud with local showers mainly afternoon. Tomorrow similar, but more sun morning than today, fewer afternoon showers. Wednesday sunny with daytime cumulus development. Afternoon showers unlikely. Thursday cloudier again, occasional light rain, above about 2300 m light snow. After Thursday relatively sunny and gradually warmer. Freezing level rises daytime Friday to highest peaks, then higher. No significant precipitation even early next week.



Trend in snow conditions

Snow cover will slowly melt, even higher. New snow transforms quickly. Thursday at most few cm snow, no impact on avalanche conditions. Conditions typically spring-like. Under sun influence snowpack softens more daytime, freezes nighttime in clear nights. Some caution needed especially steep slopes high mountains midday and afternoon. Morning slip hazard on hard frozen snow. From today ending regular snowpack bulletins. Bulletins resume presumably after 15 November 2016 or later if no significant snow cover then, or earlier if heavy snow, as needed.



Source: ARSO