Snow conditions 16. 1. 2025

General avalanche danger level - Thursday, 16. 1. 2025
Danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind slab, weak layers
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after cold

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is MODERATE, level 2 above 1700 m, LOW, level 1 lower down. Avoid areas of wind-blown snow, elsewhere apply self-protection measures to reduce snowpack loading. A small slab avalanche can be triggered on wind slabs even with minimal loading, and with heavy loading an older weak layer deeper in the snowpack may fail in places - this could trigger a medium-sized avalanche. Numerous slopes are icy, posing a risk of slipping.

Snow conditions
In recent days, the snowpack has not changed much due to cold weather. In the last 24 hours, a few light centimetres of snow have fallen mainly in the Kamnik-Savinja Alps area and in the Eastern Karawanks. Below 1900 m, the old snow base is thoroughly frozen and can withstand heavy loading. On top of this, there are locally 5 to 10 cm of dry snow, which wind in recent days has been drifting into leeward positions and building wind slabs there. Initially soft wind-blown snow in the slabs is slowly bonding and is crusty in places (breakable), elsewhere it already supports weight. Wind-blown snow is not well bonded to the old base in places, so a slab avalanche can be triggered at individual spots even with minimal loading. Above around 1900 m or where the ice crust did not form at the end of last week's precipitation, a deeper weak layer may fail under heavy loading; this could trigger a medium-sized avalanche. This threat is not limited to wind slab areas.

Forecast weather development
Today, Thursday, mostly cloudy and foggy weather will continue. More sunshine will be only in the Western Julian Alps area. Mostly moderate northeast wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around -4, at 2500 m around -7 °C. Tomorrow, Friday, it will clear up, some low cloudiness will likely remain in mid-mountains in places - especially in the Kamnik-Savinja Alps. Weak to moderate easterly winds will still blow. It will warm up considerably. Temperature at 1500 m around -1, at 2500 m around -3 °C midday. On Saturday, mostly clear and even warmer. Air will be dry. Especially around ridges and summits it will still be quite windy. Weak to moderate east to southeast wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around 3, at 2500 m around -1 °C midday. On Sunday, some mid and high cloudiness will arrive from the south at first, towards evening it will likely cloud over in western mountain ranges. Stronger wind only in high mountains, where weak to moderate southerly winds will blow. Temperatures will remain similar.

Trend in snow conditions
Snow conditions will change only slowly in the coming days. From Friday onwards, it will mainly crust on sun-exposed southern slopes during the day and freeze at night. The crust will strengthen. South-facing snow avalanches may also occur. Since the air will be dry, daytime thaw will not be pronounced. Caution is still needed in areas with wind-blown snow. Weak layers in the old snowpack will persist especially in shady areas.

Next issue: Friday, 17. 1. 2025

Source: ARSO