Snow conditions 17.1.2020
18.01.2020
Danger is level 1 on the European five-level scale - LOW.
Main problem: new snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger in the mountains is mostly LOW, level 1. Due to the hard and partly icy surface, there is primarily in the morning and partly in the forenoon danger of slipping, similarly also in places where the snow is wind-packed.
Snow conditions
The snowpack is especially on sun- and wind-exposed slopes crusty and hard. Snow on summits and ridges is heavily wind-packed. There is a greater risk of slipping. Above 2200 m in shaded areas there are still areas with poorly settled snow, where the snow is also soft. There is quite a lot of drifted snow in the form of wind slabs and pillows.
Forecast weather development
Today it will be mostly clear, only in the mid-mountains especially in the east moderately to mostly cloudy and occasionally foggy. A weak southwesterly wind will blow. It will temporarily be somewhat warmer at altitude. Tomorrow it will be cloudy and partly foggy. In the forenoon snow will start in the Julian Alps and foothills, in the afternoon gradually further east. A northeasterly wind will pick up, it will cool down. In the Julian Alps area we expect 10 to about 20 cm of snow, elsewhere up to 10 cm. On Sunday it will be dry, clearing from the west during the day. A strengthening northeasterly wind will blow. Even colder. On Monday moderately to mostly cloudy and partly foggy. Highest summits may be above the clouds. Less cloudy in the western Julian Alps. Easterly to northeasterly wind will continue to blow.
Tendency of snow conditions
Today avalanche conditions will not change. On sun-exposed slopes the snow will melt during the day and refreeze at night. Tomorrow it will snow. The new snow will bond poorly with the mostly hard or crusty base, creating a weak layer under the new snow. The northeasterly will drift the new snow into wind slabs. New slabs will form. Also on Sunday and Monday the northeasterly will continue to transport snow; due to low temperatures the snow will remain dry or frozen. Avalanche danger will INCREASE on Saturday. From steep slopes avalanches of new, poorly bonded snow will release spontaneously. In the following days slab avalanches from steeper slopes may also release. However, since there will not be much new snow, we assess the increase in danger to level 2. In case there is more precipitation than currently indicated, avalanche conditions may deteriorate further.
Next issue: Monday, 20.1.2020
Source: ARSO