Snow conditions 17.3.2023

General danger level - Friday, 17 March 2023
Danger level is 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, wet snow
Danger pattern: Spring situation

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is currently in the Julian Alps above about 1900 m CONSIDERABLE (considerable), 3rd level, elsewhere mostly MODERATE, 2nd level. Steeper southern slopes are particularly dangerous, where due to warming we expect spontaneous wet snow avalanches. In high mountains, especially in gullies, there is wind slab; with greater load you can trigger a small slab avalanche. Wind-exposed locations are scoured to the old, frozen base, so there is a risk of slipping there.

Snow conditions
In the mountains today (Friday) it has warmed up significantly. The zero isotherm has risen above our highest peaks. Especially on steep southern locations in the high mountains, the snow that fell at the beginning of the week has become wet and unstable. In more shaded locations, snow transforms much more slowly due to dry air. Mainly on southern and western sides of ridges and saddles there are areas with wind slab that has somewhat bonded to the base. The surface layer of the snow cover is soft and locally crusted. Wind-exposed locations are scoured to the old base, which is hard and locally icy. In mid-mountains there are increasingly more bare spots.

Forecast weather development
On Friday and Saturday mostly clear weather will continue, occasionally with more high cloudiness. A weak southwesterly will blow, strengthening somewhat on Saturday. At midday temperature at 1500 m around 5, at 2500 m around 3 °C. On Sunday medium and high cloudiness will increase. Still a weak to moderate southwesterly. Temperature at 1500 m around 6, at 2500 m around 1 °C. On Monday night and early Monday local precipitation possible. During the day partly clearing.

Trend in snow conditions
Sun and warming will affect snow and avalanche conditions. The snow cover will wet on sun-exposed locations during the day and freeze at night. Crust will strengthen. In shaded locations snow will remain mostly dry. Lower down snow will also melt. Avalanche conditions will change during the day. From late morning to late afternoon on steep southern slopes the possibility for spontaneous release of bonded or unbonded wet snow will increase. Danger in high mountains of the Julian Alps will be CONSIDERABLE, 3rd level on Saturday, otherwise remaining MODERATE, 2nd level. You can trigger a snow avalanche there during this time even with minor snow cover loading. Northern slopes will be safer, there mainly watch for slabs and weak layers in the snow cover.

Next issue: Monday, 20 March 2023

Source: ARSO