Snow conditions 17.5.2021

The danger level is 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wet snow, new snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE, level 3, in the high mountains of the Julian Alps, MODERATE, level 2, elsewhere in the high mountains, and LOW, level 1, lower down. Above about 2000 m there is new snow, the most in Posočje, which may slide off steep slopes. Especially today, individual spontaneous avalanches are expected, and you can also trigger an avalanche with minor additional load on the snowpack. Numerous wind slabs have formed in the high mountains. Lower down, rain has soaked the old snowpack, making it less stable. In the mid-mountains, the snow has melted and diminished.

Snow conditions
At the end of the week, especially in the night from Sunday to Monday, more than 50 cm of snow fell in the high mountains of the western and southern Julian Alps, elsewhere 10 to about 20 cm. Strong southwesterlies blew it into wind slabs. This morning, the snow line dropped to about 1500 m, with strengthened northerly winds blowing. At these elevations the snow is soft, higher up dry, lower wet. There are many wind slabs. Lower down the old snow is soaked. Conditions are fully wintery especially in the high mountains.

Forecast weather development
Today precipitation will subside during the day, clouds will break up in the afternoon. Weak to moderate northwesterlies will blow. Freezing level will be at about 2000 m. Tomorrow morning sunny, afternoon partly cloudy with local showers. In the evening and night to Wednesday, precipitation will be more frequent and intense, snow line temporarily dropping again to about 1500 m. About 10-20 cm of snow expected in high mountains, locally up to 30 cm. Northerlies during precipitation. Wednesday clearing, afternoon partly cloudy with local showers and thunderstorms. Thursday morning sunny, afternoon some showers.

Trend in snow conditions
In the mid-mountains the snowpack will continue to diminish, snow will not refreeze due to high humidity and considerable cloudiness. In high mountains occasional snowfall. New snow will settle immediately, so no major increase in snowpack. Since new snow will be less than last weekend, no increase in avalanche danger expected. Steep slopes and areas with wind-blown snow will remain somewhat more dangerous especially from mid-morning to late afternoon. New snow may slide, and you can trigger avalanches yourselves. Lower down the snowpack is mostly settled and transformed and, despite being soaked, fairly stable.

Next issue: Thursday, 20.5.2021

Source: ARSO