Snow conditions 17. 1. 2025

General danger level - Friday, 17. 1. 2025
Danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind-blown snow, weak layers
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after frost

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger above 1700 m is MODERATE, level 2, lower down LOW, level 1. The variably thick upper layer of wind-blown snow is primarily unstable and can slab off under minor loads. Deeper down, older snow layers have mostly bonded well together. In places, an older weak layer deeper in the snowpack can fail under high load - this can trigger a medium-sized avalanche. Many slopes are icy, making them hazardous for slipping.

Snow conditions
In recent days, the snowpack has not changed much due to cold weather; a few centimetres of light snow fell mainly in the Kamniško-Savinjske Alps area and the Eastern Karawanks. Below around 1900 m, the old snow base is heavily refrozen and withstands heavy loads. On this base, there is locally 5 to 10 cm of dry snow, which wind has redistributed into leeward positions in recent days, building windslabs. The initially soft wind-blown snow in windslabs is slowly bonding and is crusty in places (breakable crust), elsewhere it already supports weight. Wind-blown snow is not well bonded to the old base in places, so a slab avalanche can release on individual spots even with minor load. Above around 1900 m altitude or where the ice crust did not form at the end of precipitation last week, a deeper weak layer can also fail under high load; this can trigger a medium-sized avalanche. This threat is not limited to areas of wind-blown snow.

Forecast weather development
Today, on Friday, there will initially be low cloud in mid-mountains in places, which will lower during the day. Higher summits will be above the clouds. A moderate easterly wind will blow, increasing with altitude. It will warm up considerably, with an inversion layer at altitudes between around 1800 m and 2300 m. Midday temperature at 1500 m will be around -4 °C, at 2500 m around -3 °C. On Saturday it will be clear and even warmer, with dry air. It will be quite windy especially around ridges and summits. A light to moderate easterly to southeasterly wind will blow. Midday temperature at 1500 m will be around 2 °C, at 2500 m around -1 °C. On Sunday, some mid- and high-level cloud will arrive from the south initially, and clouding over is likely in the western mountain ranges towards evening. Stronger wind will only be in the high mountains, where a light to moderate southeasterly to southerly wind will blow. Temperatures will remain similar. On Monday it will be mostly cloudy and mostly dry.

Trend in snow conditions
Snow conditions will change only slowly in the coming days. From Friday onwards, snow will especially melt on pronounced sun-exposed slopes during the day and refreeze at night. The crust will strengthen. A south-facing wet-snow avalanche may also occur. As the air will be dry, daytime thawing will not be pronounced. Caution is still needed in areas with wind-blown snow. Weak layers in the old snowpack will continue to be present especially in shaded areas.

Next bulletin: Monday, 20. 1. 2025

Source: ARSO