Snow conditions 18.01.2024

General avalanche danger level - Thursday, 18.1.2024
Danger is level 3 on the European 5-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wet snow, wind slab
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is between about 1700 and 2100 m above sea level, CONSIDERABLE, level 3, above about 2100 MODERATE, level 2, lower down LOW, level 1. Due to rain and warming, the snowpack has become soaked and destabilized, so spontaneous wet snow avalanches are possible from steep slopes and in gullies. Below about 1700 m there is considerably less snow, higher up there is not enough new snow to greatly increase avalanche danger. Above sea level 2100 m new slabs have formed, which are potentially dangerous on steep slopes. More of them are on northern and eastern sides of ridges and saddles.

Snow conditions
In the high mountains above about 2100 m the snow remained dry, new snow has fallen. The new snow is soft, the base mostly crusty, locally also hard and especially on wind-exposed locations drifted and icy. Lower down the snow is wet, soaked and softened. Where there is little snow, it is water-saturated to the ground. Only in the eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje there was very little rain, so there the snow is heavy mainly due to warming.

Forecast weather development
This afternoon there will be some sun temporarily. A southwest wind will blow. Freezing level around 2100 m. In the second part of the night to Friday, precipitation will cover all of Slovenia from the north. It will cool quickly and the snow line will drop to the lowlands by morning. Temperature below zero. A moderate north to northeast wind will blow. It will snow in the mid-mountains too, where the wind will also create drifts. In the afternoon snowfall will stop. In the night to Saturday it will clear up, Saturday will be clear and cold. A moderate northeast wind will blow. Sunday will also be mostly clear and cold, but in the heights it will warm up somewhat.

Tendency of snow conditions
Snow and avalanche conditions will change considerably due to snowfall and strong cooling. Expect 20 to 40 cm of new snow. In the high mountains, where it snowed already today, the new snow will likely bond with the old into a common layer of dry snow, which due to the firmer base will become potentially unstable. The north wind will worsen the situation, creating new areas of wind slab on south-oriented slopes. Below about 1700 m, where there is not much snow, new snow will fall on a wet base, which will freeze quickly. Drifts will form there too, even in mid-mountains and hills. In intermediate elevations the bond between base and new snow will be better than in the high mountains, but the layer of new snow thinner, because it rained there today. Avalanche conditions will worsen. Main danger will be steep slopes where dry snow avalanches may release initially, and wind slab areas where you can trigger slab avalanches already with minor loading. In mid-mountains and lower the avalanche danger will be MODERATE, level 2, but there too on steep grassy slopes new snow can slide, and small slabs will form in places. Due to cold weather the situation will not change much by the end of the week, only with the influx of warmer air at the beginning of the week will the snow start to consolidate and transform faster.

Next issue: Friday, 19.1.2024

Source: ARSO