Snow conditions 18.2.2022

General danger level - Friday, 18.2.2022
The danger is level 3 on the European 5-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: weak layers, wind slab, new snow
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after cold

Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE, level 3, in the Julian Alps and in the western and central Karawanks above about 1500 m, especially increasing in the late morning and afternoon due to solar influence. Lower down and in the rest of our mountains it is MODERATE, level 2. Dangerous are areas with wind slab and steep slopes, where due to the weak layer under the newer snow, small and individual medium-sized avalanches may release spontaneously from sufficiently steep slopes. Even with minor additional load on the snowpack, you may trigger slab avalanches. Wind-exposed locations are heavily scoured, there is a risk of slipping.

Snow conditions
With the warming and sunny weather, the upper, newer snow layer has become wet and somewhat settled, especially on sun-exposed aspects. Overnight, a crust formed. Only in shaded high-altitude locations is the upper snow layer soft and dry. Wind-exposed spots are scoured to the old, hard and icy base. There is relatively little snow in the mountains. From steep slopes, new snow avalanches have released, numerous small ones and individual medium-sized ones.

Forecast weather development
Today it will be mostly clear, clouding over towards noon especially in the hills of Inner Carniola and northern Primorska and in the southwestern part of the Julian Alps. Cloud caps may also form on the ridges of the Kamnik-Savinja Alps and Karawanks. The southwest wind will strengthen, from mid-afternoon hindering movement on exposed terrain. The zero isotherm is at about 1900 m, in the afternoon even a bit higher. Tomorrow it will be cloudy and foggy. Precipitation will first appear in the Snežnik area and upper Posočje, gradually elsewhere in the afternoon. Initially a strong southwest wind will blow, weakening during the day. The snow line will first rise to about 1400 m, then start descending in the afternoon. Precipitation will cease in the alpine region by evening, further south during the night to Sunday. Sunday will be moderately to mostly cloudy, warming up a bit again. Southwest wind will start blowing. Monday will be cloudy with light snowfall in the hills and mountains.

Trend in snow conditions
Today the snow will continue to settle and transform, and slide on steep, mainly sunny slopes. Overnight, due to wind and cloudiness, it will freeze only above the zero isotherm height, not lower. By Saturday night, 10 to 20 cm of snow is expected, which will additionally load the upper snowpack layer, under which there is a weak layer. Therefore, the possibility of spontaneous release of the upper snowpack layer from steep slopes will increase again. Due to the strong southwest wind, new slabs will form. On Sunday, with warming, the new snow will become wet and partially bond especially in mid-mountains and on sun-exposed high-altitude aspects, so you may quickly trigger avalanches of partially bonded snowpack layer over the weak layer of old snow. Conditions will be demanding. On Monday, avalanche and snow conditions are not expected to change much, as the amount of new snow will be small. Be very careful at the end of the week. Do not linger under steep slopes and avoid them even when crossing. Choose avalanche-safe areas. The next avalanche bulletin will be published on Monday, 21.2.2022.

Next issue: Monday, 21.2.2022

Source: ARSO