Snow conditions 18. 3. 2024

General danger level - Monday, 18. 3. 2024
The danger is level 2 on the European 5-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind slab
Danger pattern: Spring situation

Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is mostly MODERATE, level 2 (applies to altitudes and areas with at least 30 cm of snow cover). The snowpack is mostly stable. Stability deteriorates during the day in sunny weather on all pronounced sun-exposed slopes, where wet snow avalanches can be triggered. In the high mountains, snow is particularly hard and icy on wind-exposed spots, posing a risk of slipping there. In high mountain shady aspects, snow is still dry in places or wind-packed onto a layer of graupel - there is a risk of triggering a slab avalanche with additional load.

Snow conditions
Warm weather continued over the weekend. The 0°C isotherm did not drop below 2000 m above sea level. On Saturday, clouds and local precipitation kept the snow wet, only above about 2100 m it remained frozen or dry. Overnight into Sunday it froze and melted during the day, except in the shade. By this morning it froze slightly again, so the snowpack has settled somewhat since Friday, and snow has diminished in the mid-mountains. Sun-exposed slopes are bare in many places down to 1600 m above sea level, while in shady aspects snow can reach down to about 1200 m. Snow conditions in the mountains are quite spring-like. In the high mountains, snow is dry and hard, on sun-exposed spots it melts in sunny weather, while in shade it remains dry or frozen. In more cloudy weather, snow remains either frozen or wet, depending on altitude. There are still slabs and wind slabs in the high mountains.

Forecast weather development
Today, Monday, it will be mostly cloudy and locally foggy. Especially midday and afternoon, local precipitation, snow line around 1800 m above sea level. The focus of precipitation will be in Primorska and Notranjska, least in the eastern part of our Alps. In the Julian Alps and western and central Karawanks, 5 to 10 cm of snow may fall, further east up to 5 cm. Weak north to northwesterly wind. Tomorrow, Tuesday, variable to mostly cloudy, mountains often in clouds. Brief showers possible. Weak wind, moderate northerly in high mountains. Slightly cooler, 0°C isotherm between 1400 and 1900 m above sea level, lower in the eastern part of our mountains. Wednesday sunny. Warmer air flowing in at altitude, by evening 0°C at 2700 m above sea level! Weak north to northwesterly wind, in mid-mountains weak mostly westerly wind. Thursday gradually clouding over, afternoon local showers.

Trend in snow conditions
Today's precipitation will locally soften the snow somewhat, but above 1800 m little new snow, which will not affect avalanche conditions. On Tuesday, due to transient cooling, snow will freeze and temporarily stabilize somewhat, but more icy patches possible. On Wednesday, due to sunny weather and warming, the possibility of wet snow avalanches will increase again on steeper sun-exposed slopes, even in high mountains, as warming will be pronounced and there will be plenty of sun. Overnight into Thursday, snow will freeze and may melt again in the morning on sun-exposed slopes. Long-term, the snowpack will slowly settle, transform and stabilize. Avalanche danger will depend mainly on sun/cloudiness and air mass temperature, thus changing during the day.

Next bulletin: Thursday, 21. 3. 2024

Source: ARSO