Snow Conditions 19.1.2023

General avalanche danger level - Thursday, 19.1.2023
The danger is level 3 on the European 5-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, new snow, weak layers
Danger pattern: Cold weather, fresh unbonded snow with wind

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is above about 1600 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower down MODERATE, level 2. Moderate danger (level 2) also in the area of Idrija-Cerkno, Škofja Loka, Poljane hills and in higher parts of Sava hills. There, steep grassy slopes are particularly dangerous. In the mountains, the snowpack continues to build up. Slopes above the treeline are especially dangerous, where the wind has transported snow and built new wind deposits. Even under a small load, you can trigger a slab avalanche. In the old snowpack, now buried under a thick blanket of new snow, there are weak layers especially on shady slopes that can fail at some locations under additional load. This can happen especially where there is less new snow due to wind influence. Especially in gullies and on very steep slopes, individual dry and unbonded snow avalanches may still occur today and tomorrow. Below about 1600 m, steep grassy slopes are mainly dangerous. Snow and avalanche conditions are very demanding, the danger is difficult to recognize. When choosing a slope, one must be very cautious.

Snow conditions
From Sunday to today, a total of 50 to nearly 100 cm of snow has fallen in the mountains. Snowfalls were quite evenly distributed, less snow fell in the area of the western Julian Alps. More than half a meter of snow also fell in the pre-alpine region of western Slovenia and locally in the Dinaric mountains. During snowfall, mainly above the treeline, moderate to strong southwest wind blew at exposed locations, the wind occasionally changed direction, but most of the wind-blown snow is on northern and eastern slopes. The snowpack is still mostly loose and settles deeply. Below about 1100 m, the snow settled a bit yesterday and drier snow fell on it overnight and today.

Forecast weather development
This afternoon mostly cloudy and foggy. Snow showers will occur. Weak to moderate northerly wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around -7, at 2500 m around -13 °C. Tomorrow cloudy and foggy. In the morning some snowflakes may still fall, then precipitation will cease. In the west, clouds will break in the afternoon. Moderate northerly wind will blow. The wind will strengthen in the afternoon. Temperature at 1500 m around -8, at 2500 m around -14 °C. On Saturday mostly cloudy and especially in the high mountains of Karawanks and Kamnik-Savinja Alps also foggy. In the eastern mountain ranges, light snow may occasionally fall, but amounts will be negligible. Very strong northerly wind will blow, gusts will presumably exceed 100 km/h. It will be cold. Temperature at 1500 m around -8, at 2500 m around -15 °C. On Sunday cloudy and locally foggy, occasional snow may fall. Windy, northerly wind will weaken somewhat. Temperature similar to Saturday.

Trend in snow conditions
Snow and avalanche conditions will not change much until Friday afternoon. On Friday afternoon, the northerly wind will already be strong enough to transport snow in many places. On Saturday, conditions will change rapidly. Northerly wind will transport large amounts of loose snow at many places and deposit it on southern slopes. The number of dangerous spots with wind slab will increase markedly! Wind will also transport snow in the pre-alpine and Dinaric hills. Snow and weather conditions will be very demanding due to cold, wind, poor visibility and avalanche danger.

Next issue: Friday, 20.1.2023

Source: ARSO