Snow conditions 19.2.2016

AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT



Avalanche danger is still considerable in most of our mountains!!

Above the forest line it is 3rd degree, in lower elevations mostly 2nd degree.



From midday to this morning, 5 to about 30 cm of new snow fell, the most in the Julian Alps. Initially, the southeast wind was still quite strong, transporting snow into drifts and building cornices. The zero isotherm was above 1600 m. Snow in higher locations is still quite dry and light and poorly bonded to the previous base, below 2000 m gradually more wet.

The snowpack consists of a large number of layers, some of which are still poorly bonded to each other. Above about 1800 m, spontaneous release of individual small avalanches will still be possible due to larger amounts of wind-deposited and still unprocessed snow, and on many sufficiently steep slopes, larger slab avalanches may occur even with minor loading.





SNOW CONDITIONS and CURRENT STATE OF THE SNOWPACK



The snowpack has settled somewhat but is still soft and above about 2000 m light and mostly dry. There are many drifts and cornices; on wind-exposed spots, snow is quite scoured. Due to cloudy weather, there is no pronounced crust yet. Below about 2000 m, snow has become quite wet due to elevated temperatures and cloudy weather, but not yet soaked to greater depths; this will happen due to partly sunny weather, especially on sun-facing slopes, by the end of the weekend. Transient pronounced warming on Sunday will further wet the pack.



In the Julian Alps and western Karawanks, at 2500 m up to about 260 cm of snow, at 1500 m from 200 to about 230 cm, at 1000 m from 20 to about 50 cm. Elsewhere in our mountains, at 1500 m from 50 to 130 cm of snow. The snowpack starts at quite varying elevations, but significant snow amounts are mostly above about 1000 m, in the northwest even lower.





FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT



Today mostly cloudy and foggy, local precipitation will occur. Snow above about 900 m. In mid-mountains weak local wind, in high mountains weak westerly wind. Cooler, temperature at 1500 m around -2, at 2500 m around -8 °C.

Tomorrow initially mostly cloudy and foggy, minor precipitation possible locally. Snow above about 900 m. During the day partly clearing. In mid-mountains weak southwest wind, in high mountains westerly wind strengthening during the day. Temperature at 1500 m around -1, at 2500 m around -8 °C.

Sunday partly clear and warm. Moderate westerly wind.





TENDENCY OF SNOW CONDITIONS



The snowpack will slowly settle and transform. Transiently cooler on Saturday and again quite warmer on Sunday - zero isotherm will rise even above 3000 m, contributing to strong wetting and potential instability of the snowpack. In partly clear nights, crust will form that won't bear human weight. Numerous snow layers will bond only slowly. Difference between sun-facing and shaded slopes will increase - in shades in high mountains snow will remain mostly unprocessed.



Thus in the mountain world avalanche danger will remain at this level for some time.



In mid-mountains the snowpack will settle and melt quickly; on steeper slopes even small wet snow avalanches possible.

Next report issued on MONDAY, 22.2.2016 morning.



Source: ARSO