Snow conditions 1. 1. 2024

General avalanche danger level - Monday, 1 January 2024
Danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: new snow, wind slab
Danger pattern: Snowfall after prolonged cold period
Danger pattern: Crust covered with snow

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger in the high mountains, above about 1800 m a.s.l., is CONSIDERABLE, level 3, and lower down MODERATE, level 2. Steep slopes in the high mountains are particularly dangerous, where the new snow has not bonded well to the hard base, and additionally, due to the strong southwesterly wind, quite a few wind slabs have formed. Locally in the snowpack there are thin unstable layers of faceted crystals or surface hoar. In the mid-mountains there is less snow, it was also wetter and bonded better to the base, so the danger there is lower. In addition to the danger of triggering an avalanche yourself, spontaneous avalanches of dry, unbonded snow are possible from steep slopes in the high mountains.

Snow conditions
In the high mountains of the Julian Alps up to about 50 cm of snow has fallen, elsewhere up to about 30 cm, and in the mid-mountains mostly 10 to 20 cm. The new snow is light and soft, and on wind-exposed spots it is quite scoured. The old base, which is at the surface only on wind-exposed spots, is crusty, sometimes hard. Wind slabs formed mainly on northern and eastern slopes, and towards the end of the precipitation also on southern sides of ridges and saddles.

Forecast weather development
Today in the afternoon it will partly clear up, but there will be quite dense altostratus clouds. The wind will weaken. Tomorrow it will be moderately to mostly cloudy, some summits will occasionally be in clouds. The southwesterly wind will strengthen and will be quite strong in the afternoon. On Wednesday morning it will be cloudy, in the hills of northern Primorska and Notranjska and in the southern foothills of the Julian Alps there will be precipitation, the snow line will be between 1200 and 1600 m a.s.l. A strong westerly to southwesterly wind will blow. In the afternoon it will partly clear up. On Thursday it will be dry and fairly sunny in the mountains, cloudier in the foothills of the Julian Alps and in the hills of Notranjska and northern Primorska. A southwesterly wind will blow.

Trend of snow conditions
The new snow will gradually settle and bond in the coming days. The southwesterly wind will transport it mainly in the high mountains into wind slabs. On the surface, in the mid-mountains a crust will form due to melting and freezing, in the high mountains mainly due to wind, so in sheltered spots there the snow will remain soft. Avalanche danger will SLOWLY DECREASE. Particularly dangerous will be loose snow on steep slopes in the high mountains, wind slabs will ice over, so there will be a risk of gliding there. Renewed precipitation and a more pronounced change in avalanche and snow conditions are expected from Friday onwards.

Next issue: Thursday, 4 January 2024

Source: ARSO