Snow conditions 1 March 2024

General danger level - Friday, 1 March 2024
Danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: drifted snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: Steep slopes covered with snow
Danger pattern: Rain
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poor bonding of fresh snow with wind

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE, level 3. Steep slopes with drifted snow are particularly dangerous, where a slab avalanche can be triggered with greater load. Light precipitation has already started in the mountains, above approx. 2000 m as snow. Lower down, mainly on steep un-vegetated slopes, another wet loose snow avalanche may still be triggered. This danger will decrease after cooling during today, so the general danger will already be MODERATE, level 2, in the afternoon. New snow until Saturday evening will not significantly increase the danger of avalanche release; it will increase in the night to Sunday due to formation of new snow slabs with strengthened southwesterly.

Snow conditions
On Wednesday it rained high up, above 2200 m, the snowpack surface became moist, on steep slopes small wet loose snow avalanches released spontaneously. With today's cooling, the snowpack surface above approx. 1500 m will freeze, a rain crust will form. New snow will fall onto it. Today's cooling will temporarily somewhat stabilise the snowpack. In the high mountains, steep slopes with drifted snow nevertheless remain dangerous.

Expected weather development
Today, Friday, it will be cloudy and foggy with light precipitation until evening. Weak easterly wind will blow. In the night to Saturday, weak southerly will start blowing. On Saturday morning mostly dry, peaks of Southern and Western Julian Alps will be in clouds, elsewhere cloud cover initially less. Midday southwesterly will strengthen, everywhere clouding over, precipitation will reappear, persisting until Sunday morning. On Sunday probably drier, in the east occasionally sunny too. Strengthened southwesterly will blow, exceeding 60 km/h at exposed sites. Today during the day slight cooling in the mountains, temperature then will not change significantly until Monday. Zero isotherm between 1500 and 1800 m, at 2000 m between -1 and -2, at 2500 m another 2 to 3 degrees lower. Mostly snowing above 1500 m, occasionally somewhere lower too. Weather development in the night to Monday unclear - perhaps dry, perhaps even more new snow will fall.

Tendency of snow conditions
Until Sunday morning 20-30 cm snow above 1500 m will fall, in Western and Southern Julian Alps possibly more than 40 cm. Precipitation light but frequent. Avalanche release probability will decrease somewhat today due to cooling, newly fallen snow until Saturday morning will not significantly increase danger. Strengthened southwesterly from the night to Sunday onwards will transport new snow and build slabs, so danger will increase then. At the same time, shearing may occur between moist old snow and new dry snow, gradually reducing the cohesion of new snow with the old base. Snow conditions from Sunday afternoon onwards cannot yet be reliably forecasted, somewhat more abundant snowfall in the night to Monday not excluded.

Next publication: Monday, 4 March 2024

Source: ARSO