Snow conditions 20.1.2021

The danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.

Main problem: drifted snow, weak layers, new snow, wet snow



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger is currently mostly MODERATE everywhere, level 2. The snowpack has somewhat stabilized in the past few days. Particularly dangerous are still shady and steep slopes and spots with drifted snow and gullies where snow has accumulated. There, especially under greater stress, slab avalanches can be triggered. Spontaneous avalanching is unlikely.



Snow conditions

The snowpack is mostly crusted. The crust formed in the high mountains mainly due to wind, lower down due to melt-freeze effect, daily solar radiation and nightly freezing. Only in sheltered shady locations is the snow still powdery. The snow is still mostly dry and refrozen, only in mid-mountains up to around 1100 m elevation it has wettened due to warming, on the east considerably higher. Avalanche conditions will CHANGE RAPIDLY in the coming days.



Forecast weather evolution

Today in the Karawanks, northern Julian Alps and Pohorje partly sunny, elsewhere cloudy and foggy, higher peaks may be above clouds in places. In western Julians and foothills light precipitation in places. Strengthened to strong southwesterly wind blowing. Tomorrow mostly cloudy and foggy in places, strengthened to strong southwesterly wind. Especially in Julians and foothills occasional minor precipitation, snow line between 900 and 1200 m above sea level. Friday cloudy and foggy. Precipitation will intensify in the west and spread eastward. Snow line between 900 and 1400 m, lowering in the night to Saturday. Southwesterly will temporarily ease in the afternoon. Saturday cloudy and foggy, precipitation easing in the morning and ceasing daytime in many places. Wind easing.



Trend in snow conditions

Snowpack has wettened due to thaw up to around 1100 m elevation, in eastern Karawanks and Pohorje even up to around 1900 m. No noteworthy precipitation today in the west. Snow below 0°C isotherm will be wet and settle faster, higher up no major changes. Tomorrow the trend continues, thaw reaching somewhat higher, also west to around 1400 m elevation. In western Julians and foothills light rain wetting snowpack, making it gradually more unstable, higher up west up to around 20 cm new snow falling on mostly crusted surface. Southwesterly strongly redistributing it. Friday most abundant precipitation. Above around 1200 m up to around 70 cm snow possible by Saturday morning in Julians and western Karawanks, Kamnik-Savinja Alps 30 to 50 cm, further east somewhat less. Due to strong southwesterly numerous slabs and drifts forming. Danger of new, poorly bonded snow avalanches increasing, on steep grassy mid-mountain slopes wet snow slab avalanches possible. Avalanche danger will INCREASE CONSIDERABLY!



Next bulletin: Saturday, 23.1.2021



Source: ARSO