Snow conditions 20.12.2019

The danger level is 3 on the European 5-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.

Main problem: wet snow, new snow

Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger is currently CONSIDERABLE, level 3, in the high mountains of the Julian Alps above about 1800 m, MODERATE, level 2, in the high Karawanks and Kamnik-Savinja Alps above about 2000 m, and mostly LOW, level 1, lower down. In the Julian Alps, steeper slopes are particularly dangerous in the high mountains, where new snow slabs can release above 1800 m, and there are many new crusts that have formed mainly on the northern and eastern sides of ridges and saddles. New snow can be triggered on steeper slopes with minor additional load on the snowpack. Lower down it rained, so individual full-depth avalanches can release there from steep slopes. Elsewhere in our mountains there was little precipitation, so avalanche conditions remain similar to the previous days, shaped by relatively warm weather. Below about 1800 m, snow has been melting rapidly.



Snow conditions

In the Julian Alps above about 1900 m, 10 to 40 cm of snow fell, more in the western and central parts. Lower down it mostly rained. Elsewhere in our mountains there was much less precipitation, snowing above 2000 m. Rain wet the snowpack, quite a lot of snow below 1800 m melted. Higher up it snowed on a crusty base in places, so there is a weak layer under the new snow along which the new snow can slide. A strong south to southwest wind blew, transporting snow into winddrifts. The new snow is soft and light, the old snowpack wet, above about 2000 m mostly hard. There are many crusts, wind-exposed spots are quite scoured.



Forecast weather development

In the mountains today it will be cloudy and foggy with occasional precipitation, more pronounced in the western and central parts of the Julian Alps. There will be little in places in the Karawanks and Kamnik-Savinja Alps, further east mostly dry with some sun. Snow line between 1700 and 1900 m above sea level. Moderate to strong southwest wind will blow. In the evening precipitation will intensify and spread overnight also to the eastern part of our mountains. Tomorrow cloudy with occasional precipitation weakening in the afternoon. Snow line will descend and in the afternoon be between 900 and 1300 m. Wind will ease somewhat, west direction prevailing. On Sunday precipitation again, slowly diminishing from the west in the afternoon. Snow line fluctuating between 900 and 1400 m elevation. Southwest wind will strengthen again.



Trend in snow conditions

Snow and avalanche conditions will change rapidly from this evening onwards. In the western part of our mountains up to Sunday evening 50 to more than 100 cm of snow may fall with occasional strong wind. Avalanche danger will thus INCREASE significantly by Saturday morning! Elsewhere in the mountains it will also snow on Saturday with 20 to about 40 cm accumulation, so avalanche conditions will deteriorate. Therefore we advise against visiting the mountains at the weekend, especially the Julian Alps and the western and central Karawanks above 1800 m elevation.



Next bulletin: Monday, 23.12.2019



Source: ARSO