Snow conditions 21.1.2019

Main problem: wind slab

Danger pattern: Snowfall after a prolonged period of frost

Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger is in the high mountains of the Julian Alps, above about 1800 m CONSIDERABLE, 3rd degree, lower down and elsewhere in our mountains MODERATE, 2nd degree. There is a weak layer under the upper snow layer. During the last snowfall, east and north winds created wind slabs, wind-exposed locations are quite scoured. The snowpack is therefore potentially unstable especially in the high mountains, even with minor loading you can trigger an avalanche at sites with wind-packed snow and on steeper slopes. On scoured ridges there is locally a risk of gliding.



Snow conditions

The snowpack is soft and powdery, in wind slabs somewhat denser in places. Wind-exposed spots are quite scoured, in sheltered locations there are crusts in places. The new snow has settled somewhat, but due to low temperatures it has hardly transformed.



Forecast weather development

Today in the mid-mountains cloudy, above about 1500 m a.s.l. partly clear, but the amount of layered cloud with high bases will gradually increase from the south. A light to moderate east to southeast wind will blow. Tomorrow cloudy, clouds in multiple layers. Summits will occasionally be in clouds, also in the mid-mountains it may be foggy in places. Most of the day dry, only in the Snežnik area it may occasionally snow lightly especially in the afternoon, in the night to Wednesday light snowfall will spread northwards. Moderate easterly wind. On Wednesday cloudy and locally foggy, the highest summits may be above the cloud layer top. Occasionally light snowfall in places. Moderate wind from south to east directions.



Tendency of snow conditions

Snow will remain soft, the easterly wind will form new wind slabs. Presumably, especially in the Julian Alps and in the hills of Notranjska and northern Primorska up to 10 to 20 cm of dry snow may accumulate by Wednesday afternoon, elsewhere in our mountains around 10 cm. The wind will transport the new snow into slabs, it will bond well with the base. Avalanche danger will remain CONSIDERABLE, 3rd degree in the high mountains of the Julian Alps, elsewhere MODERATE, 2nd degree.



Next bulletin: Wednesday, 23.1.2019



Source: ARSO