3.01.2023
Description of the situation and forecast (Monday, 2.1.2023)
General danger level - Monday, 2.1.2023
Danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind-blown snow, weak layers
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost
Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is currently above about 1800 m altitude MODERATE, level 2, lower down mostly LOW, level 1. Greater caution is needed in the high mountains, where especially on northeast and east slopes there is wind-blown snow, a slab avalanche can be triggered with greater load. Especially on north slopes, weak layers may also be present in the snowpack, due to warm weather some layer may release.
Snow conditions
The recently fallen snow has settled and partially transformed due to positive temperatures and high humidity. On wind-exposed locations it is blown to the old base, which is crusty in places, hard in others. Ridges are blown clean and in high mountains icy in places. Otherwise, the snow is relatively soft. In the mid-mountains it is wet, the snowpack continues to settle and also melt, there is relatively little snow.
Forecast weather development
Overnight the top of the cloud cover will slowly rise, tomorrow in the mountains cloudy and foggy, occasional light precipitation in places. The wind will weaken, mostly light westerly winds will blow. It will cool slightly, the zero isotherm will be at about 2200 m altitude. On Wednesday it will clear again in the high mountains, also on Pohorje and in the eastern Karawanks there will be some sun in the afternoon. A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly wind will blow and the freezing level will rise again above 2500 m altitude. On Thursday in the high mountains partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness, the base of this cloudiness will be high above the peaks. Due to the southwesterly wind it will be cloudy and foggy mainly in the mid-mountains of the western and southern Julian Alps and in the hills of northern Primorska and Notranjska. There it will drizzle in places. Moderate southwesterly wind will blow. Slightly warmer than on Wednesday.
Tendency of snow conditions
The snowpack will slowly settle and transform, lower down also melt. The slight cooling mid-week will firm up the snowpack somewhat in the high mountains, with renewed warming on Thursday it will soften again higher up. It will be dangerous especially under walls and on steep slopes, some cornices may also collapse. The avalanche danger will remain above about 1900 m altitude MODERATE, level 2, lower down due to the small amount of snow LOW, level 1.
Next issue: Thursday, 5.1.2023
Source: ARSO