Snow conditions 2.12.2019

The danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.

Main problem: new snow, wind-packed snow

Danger pattern: Snowfall after a prolonged cold period

Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger has increased in the high mountains above about 1800 m elevation and is CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower down MODERATE, level 2. Spontaneous release of numerous small and occasional medium-sized and large avalanches of new, dry snow from sufficiently steep slopes is possible. Some avalanches possible also on moderately steep slopes. There are many wind slabs and cornices that can release especially on steeper slopes already under minor snowpack loading.



Snow conditions

Until this morning, 20 to 50 cm of snow has fallen in the Julian Alps and western and central Karawanks above about 1800 m elevation, more in the western Julians, the amount also depending on elevation. The snowfall limit was initially above about 1600 m but is dropping rapidly. Up to about 20 cm of snow has also fallen in places below 1800 m. There was considerably less precipitation in the eastern part of our mountains. The new snow is soft and light; initially wind slabs formed with the southwesterly wind, now with the northern and northwesterly wind. Lower down, the snow melted due to rain.



Forecast weather development

Today it will be cloudy and foggy with snowfall, which will gradually cease from the northwest in the afternoon. Clearing will begin towards evening. It will cool, with the zero isotherm dropping below 1500 m elevation by evening. Moderate winds from northern directions will blow. Tomorrow partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness, more in the east. Moderate north to northeast wind will blow, light local winds in the mid-mountains. Temperatures below zero. On Wednesday mostly clear. Warmer but dry air will flow in, forming a temperature inversion. By evening the freezing level will be around 2600 m elevation. Winds light and variable.



Trend in snow conditions

Today another 10 to about 20 cm of snow will fall in the mountains. Avalanche danger will be increased mainly above about 1800 m elevation for a few days, CONSIDERABLE, level 3. New snow, which has fallen on a crust in places, can release from sufficiently steep slopes; there are also many wind slabs and cornices that can release already on moderately steep slopes with minor snowpack loading. On Wednesday daytime, with gradual warming, the snow will begin to transform and settle somewhat faster. Initially the warming will destabilize the snowpack, but in the longer term it will gradually consolidate, avalanche conditions will improve in the second half of the week, and avalanche danger will decrease. A crust will form.



Next issue: Wednesday, 4.12.2019



Source: ARSO