Snow conditions 21.4.2016

General avalanche danger level - Thursday, 21. 4. 2016

The danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.

Main problem: wet snow, newly fallen snow

Danger pattern: vn4 Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost

Risk assessment

The danger is from evening to mid-morning LOW, level 1, during the day it increases and is MODERATE, level 2. Lower, where there is little snow, it remains LOW, level 1. The snowpack freezes overnight, at least in the high mountains, but softens during the day. Therefore it is less stable, from steep, still uncleared slopes individual wet snow avalanches can still release, including slab avalanches. Lower risk in shady locations. There are still some cornices that can collapse.

Snow conditions

At the beginning of the week the weather was somewhat cooler, so the snow in the high mountains settled somewhat more slowly, it softened more noticeably during the day on sun-facing slopes. Lower down the snowpack continued to melt. On Wednesday it warmed up again, the freezing level is this morning above our highest peaks. The snowpack is mostly frozen in the morning, but then quickly softens on sun-exposed locations, in shady areas around mid-morning. Snow melts quickly. In the Julian Alps at 2500 m there is from 190 to about 230 cm of snow, at 1500 m from 20 to about 60 cm. Elsewhere in our mountains at 1500 m on sun-facing slopes it is already bare, in shady areas there is still up to about 10 cm of snow in places. Significant snowpack in shady areas starts at sea level around 1400 m, on sun-facing even above 1900 m, lower in the Julian Alps, higher elsewhere in our mountains.

Forecast weather development

Today mostly clear. South to southwest wind will blow. Tomorrow from the west increasing layer cloudiness, which will have base above the peaks. Especially in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks there will also be some low cloudiness over peaks and ridges. Southwest wind will blow, still relatively warm. On Saturday cloudy. Precipitation will spread during the day from the west over the eastern part of our mountains. The snow line will slowly descend and on the night to Sunday it may snow to around 1000 m above sea level, perhaps a bit lower in places. On Sunday cloudy and foggy, occasionally light precipitation still possible. Freezing level between 1200 and 1500 m above sea level. New snow in the high mountains up to about 20 cm. Snow will freeze.

Trend in snow conditions

Today and tomorrow snow and avalanche conditions will not change much. The snowpack will soften during the day, at night it will freeze especially in the high mountains. Lower down the snow will remain softened, snow will continue to melt, in the high mountains conditions will be typically spring-like. The snowpack will therefore be somewhat more stable in the morning and partly forenoon, less stable midday and afternoon. On Saturday the snow will be somewhat more stable due to cloudy weather and gradual cooling. New snow will presumably bond well with the base. Wind will transport it into wind slabs. On Sunday new snow will therefore pose a risk. It can release with greater additional stress especially on steeper slopes and places with drifted snow.



Source: ARSO